I enjoy the gameflow from popcornmachine. I like the boxscores with +/- at NBA.com(and there's a cool halftime game pdf they post too). I've learned how to use some of the features of basketball-reference.com, which has a lot of advanced stats and a pretty good method of analyzing player vs. player stats and other somewhat arcane data.
I've stumbled into all of this stuff more or less by accident, but I suspect I'm missing stuff.
Recently, someone said something about "checking the game log" as though there was a place with descriptions of play-by-play game data. And I thought, "Is that available? And if it is, what else am I missing?"
So, the question is, what do you look at after a game, what do you look at if you want to look deeper? What do you look at if you haven't seen a game? What are your personal analysis tools?
From Basketball Prospectus
February 10, 2012, 03:05 PM ET
Franchise “Wins Above Average” Leaders
L.A. Clippers ----------------------------- Elton Brand 41.6 Bob McAdoo 33.8 Corey Maggette 22.1 World B. Free 12.0 Randy Smith 10.5 ... Chris Kaman -12.9 Quinton Ross -12.9 Ernie DiGregorio -13.0 Gary Grant -15.1 Michael Olowokandi -23.7
For Billups fans here is the Pistons list
Detroit Pistons ----------------------------- Chauncey Billups 48.3 Bob Lanier 43.7 Grant Hill 39.1 Isiah Thomas 29.8 Bill Laimbeer 27.8 ... Leon Douglas -7.3 Ron Lee -7.8 Chris Ford -11.6 Michael Curry -15.0 Lindsey Hunter -16.3
More terrific statistical work from Citizen BelgianClipper, who apparently has a little too much time on his hands and some truly mad Excel skillz. Dude, step away from the keyboard. Maybe go see the sights. I hear the canals in Bruges are nice. Steve
Fellow citizens,
This is a follow-up fanpost on this fanshot which Steve so graciously promoted to the front page (thanks) - (you're welcome).
A very interesting take from Citizen BelgianClipper (he has dual citizenship in Belgium and Clips Nation). I couldn't agree more that the unbalanced schedule makes it dubious to get too upset about relative positioning in something like point differential. At the end of the season, when all Western Conference teams have played more or less the same schedule, point differential and Pythagorean Wins will correlate with overall team quality. Even in the second half of the season, it will start to get better. But a third of the way in? There's way too much noise in the data. The Sixers versus the Clippers is my favorite example here. The Sixers are tied for the league lead with eight victories by 20 points or more. But those eight games came against teams the Clippers have played a total of three times -- winning by 20 twice themselves. The fact that Philly has played a lot of really bad teams and trounced them doesn't prove anything. Anyway, have a look at BC's approach for trying to adjust for some of these schedule differences. after the jump. Steve
Hey guys! Unfortunately I'm at school away from Los Angeles and wasn't able to catch the game today, but I heard something crazy happened! Are the rumors true that Deandre scored a basket outside of the paint!?
I feel like this is something that won't happen again for a long time, and I definitely want to see a video of it. If anyone has a clip of it, please share it with this poor clippers fan who isn't able to watch his favorite team live anymore.
The Clippers won a close game, and the Lakers just got torched by Jeremy Lin. I didn't even have to use my AK.
(gotta hit the word limit) Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day. Today was a good day.
I posted something about where I thought the Clippers needed to get to record-wise to have a solid position in the playoffs (40-26). As I typed it up, I realized at the end, unless they really feasted upon 18 games vs the bad or below avg teams, it might be a struggle to get to 40 wins. I had them going 13-5 and obviously no one game can be a solid sign but the Cleveland game did worry me in regards to getting to that 13-5 record. In reality, they will probably need to get to 15-3 to offset the games vs great teams. I think the divide between playoff and non-playoff teams this year in the West conference is more blurred than the past few years. Last year, you had New Orleans, Memphis, and Houston battling it out for the 7th-8th seeds but that was still a three game separation. Basically 9 teams for 8 spots. The year before it was even a bigger separation between 8th spot and 9th spot -- 8 games separation. This year is far different, there are 2 games separating spots 5 to 11. 2 good playoff worthy teams and 1 decent team will be left out of the race. I do think Utah will fade and Houston will not keep up with its current pace but still leaves a Memphis team who will get ZBo back, a Portland team that is pretty deep, and a dangerous Minnesota team (that might be one piece away).
So when I considered all this, I start to get very worried that the Billups injury was a bad sign and Clippers could stumble as they seek to find that 15 pts a game from Billups and his intangibles. The margin for error in the West is razor thin this year. Pre CP3 trade, I was just hoping for a playoff seed (7 or 8 was fine with me). Post CP3 trade, I was thinking 3 through 5 playoff seed. Now I'm worried that things could go downhill.
Just wondering what you all honestly, objectively think...
I thought before the season that Clippers need to avg 10 wins a month (Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr) to get to a record of 40-26 and a good seed in the playoffs. The western conference is very very tough so getting close to 40 wins will almost be required for a playoff spot. For simplicity sake, I counted the Dec games into the January pool. As of now, they are on pace and actually ahead of this pace. Any wins they get beyond 10 in Feb or Mar will be an added bonus, as I think the April month will be the toughest schedule-wise.
Coincidentally, ESPN's John Hollinger listed his 2011-12 NBA Playoff odds and lists Clippers as a projected record of 40-26 (with best possible at 54-12 and worst possible at 25-41) so I'm glad that my estimation is confirmed by someone else. According to him, that record would get the Clippers a 3 seed which I like though according to his list that would mean a series vs Denver--the 4-5 seed series is Portland vs Houston. I'd rather drop a seed and play one of them.
To sum all this up, the Clippers are +7 in the win column after roughly 1/3 of the season. They need to finish at +14 at the end of the season which means a closing record of 25-18 which totally seems doable considering they still have these games to come:
3 vs New Orleans (2H, 1A)
4 vs PHX (2H, 2A)
3 vs GSW (2H, 1A)
3 vs Sacramento (1H, 2A)
1 vs Utah (at Home--still dont consider them a playoff team--consider them in the GSW/PHX level)
And games against weak eastern opponents: @ Char, Wash, @ NJ, and Detroit
That's 18 games vs what I would consider lesser opponents. I think they should go at least 13-5 in those games assuming some slip ups and fatigue). That leaves 12 more wins to come from the rest of the scheduled 25 games. Of those remaining games they have 15 vs above avg/good teams:
2 vs Portland (1H, 1A)
2 vs Denver (1H, 1A)
3 vs MIN (1H, 2A)
2 vs ATL (1H, 1A)
2 vs Houston (1H, 1A)
2 vs Memphis (1H, 1A)
1 vs Indiana (1A)
1 vs NYK (1A)
I put Minnesota in this category because are improved and dangerous. I think they should go 7-8 vs these pool of teams. I think they win the home games and steal one at Pacers or Knicks. They could also steal one at Minnesota.
So now that leaves 5 more wins to come home what is left on the schedule; 10 games vs those that I consider tough opponents:
1 vs 76ers (1A)
2 vs Dallas (2A)
2 vs San Antonio (1H, 1A)
1 vs Boston (1H)
3 vs OKC (1H, 2A)
1 vs Lakers (1H)
When I break it down like this, it does get dicey. I think they win at home vs Spurs and Boston but not sure where they get those other 3 wins at. Maybe I'm not as confident as I was....yikes!
I know the team has been nothing but appreciative of Mo's willingness to play off the bench and not make a big drama out of being the 6th man. After reading the TJ Simers article, I can't help but think if Mo has resentment he keeps inside for his reduced role after the acquisition of Billups and Paul. Even though Simers' article mostly consist of him putting words in Mo's mouth, it's impossible for Mo to not have any sort of negative feelings inside. And I don't blame him if this negative feeling grows over the course of the season(especially after reading stuff like Simers article). Imagine if you were in line for a promotion at work, then the company hired somebody more compentent and experience to replace you and you get demoted. I'd be piss and try to look for a job elsewhere. I know the talk has mostly been around CP3's ability to closeout games in the 4th quarter but having instant offense coming off the bench is almost as irreplaceable. It's a team game and I don't think the team would be 15 - 8 without Mo. I know it kind of suck to be him right now but the least we can do as fans is to let him know we are very appreciative of his part in building a winner out of the Clippers.
Let's show him love whenever we can!
Citizen Erik O's wish is my command!...After the jump vote on what you think about JR:
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