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How Much Does Losing Chauncey Hurt the Clippers?

Andrew Sharp of SBNation has an interesting take on the Chauncey Billups injury. Sharp feels like the injury may help the Clippers in a way, in that Chauncey was continuing to take shots as if he were a superstar, while making them at a decidedly sub-superstar level. While I wouldn't come out and say it quite as bluntly, there is definitely some truth to this idea.

Guard is the one position in which the Clippers are deep. Really deep. When Eric Bledsoe is fully healthy again, he'll need some minutes, and with Chris Paul and Mo Williams among the most productive guards in the entire league, there weren't a lot of minutes beyond a healthy Chauncey. Obviously, an injury to Paul would free up minutes as well but would be devastating to the Clippers. The simple fact is that Billups has been a terrific part of the first third of the season, but there's not much he was doing that is irreplaceable.

Star-divide

Billups' greatest value might have been as the guy who ran the show during the five games that Paul was out. Obviously the Clippers lose that luxury. But injuries happen, and no team is infinitely deep. It goes without saying that any injury hurts a team's depth.

The point is, with Paul's leadership on the court, the loss of Billups' own veteran savvy is mitigated. As for his basketball contributions, there's little question that he was better than Randy Foye, who will replace him in the starting lineup -- but it's not as big a gap as you might imagine. Furthermore, not all of Billups' minutes will go to Foye.

Through 22 games, down the stretch of close games Vinny Del Negro has been faced with a dilemma. What lineup should be closing? Paul, Griffin and Jordan are more or less no brainers. But then he had to pick two out of the three remaining members of the Clippers big six -- Billups, Williams and Caron Butler. Against some opponents, the three guard alignment was not an option, meaning that it boiled down to Billups or Williams. VDN went with Williams on occasoin, and rightly so -- but the potential for tension, benching an All Star veteran like Billups down the stretch, was always there. Now, there's no debate. VDN has a default lineup for closing games.

So it's not just a straight substitution of the somewhat less productive Foye for Billups -- some of those minutes will be going to the more productive Williams. And provided that Foye accepts the proper role on this team, he should be taking fewer shots than Billups when he is out there. Those extra shots should be going to Paul and Griffin and Butler -- all much more efficient from the field than Billups this season.

The loss clearly hurts in some ways. The Clippers strange contingent of point guards and combo guards lacks any real size, and Billups was one of only two (Foye being the other) with legitimate two guard dimensions. Defending the Kobe's of the league was difficult for this team before, and it got more so when Chauncey's Achilles popped. Also, while Billups was shooting a career low from the field, he still excelled at two things -- making three pointers, and getting to the line. So while it may be fine to reallocate some of his field goal attempts to other more efficient shooters, it would be naive and simply wrong to suggest that the Clippers won't miss his knock down three point shooting and those easy points he picked up at the foul line. In particular, the team's new found prowess from beyond the arc has made them incredibly potent in an offense that features Blake Griffin drawing double teams and Chris Paul breaking down defenses.

But in the end, this is the one injury to their big six that the Clippers can most easily absorb. Sharp may be overstating it to say the Clippers "got lucky" -- it would be far luckier if he weren't hurt. But as five ESPN writers recently unanimously agreed, this injury does not knock the Clippers from the ranks of contenders in the West.

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At least Clipper Darrell is recruting JR Smith to the Clippers!!
Clipper Darrell to JR Smith
u will love los angeles then #CLIPPERS
41 minutes ago
JR Smith to Clipper Darrell
You think so? It would be a great fit!
29 minutes ago via Echofon
Clipper Darrell to JR Smith
Heck Yeah!! I know so …YOU ARE THE MISSING PIECE!!!
25 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
JR Smith to Clipper Darrell
Thats whats up! Makes it easy wit a pg like CP3
24 minutes ago via Echofon
Clipper Darrell to JR Smith
when I say team.. u say SWISH ..Let’s Go JR Let’s GO!! #CLIPPERS #TeamSwish
15 minutes ago
JR Smith to Clipper Darrell
#dope RT @clipperdarrell: @TheRealJRSmith when I say team.. u say SWISH ..Let’s Go JR Let’s GO!! #CLIPPERS #TeamSwish
13 minutes ago

ITS GONNA HAPPEN MY FRIENDS!!!

well if clipper darrell says its okay....
just like the LeBron rally?
The power of Twitter

Next, Clipper Darrell will be writing Clipper checks!

It would be coup and Clipper Darrell will be our new owner!
Clipper Darrell can pick him up at the airport in the Clippermobile.

Please leave mama and girlfriend at LAX for a connecting flight back to Denver.

I heard that the Clippermobile is no more
screw that

I want JR’s fam in the stands cheerin for the clips. they seem like passionate basketball fans.

I say put them right behind a group of obnoxious laker fans
i guess the silver lining is that blake has broken out of his FT slump
seriously, 6/7 and now 9/10?

chauncey has taught him well…

its amazing

quite frankly. hopefully it keeps up.

If he could hit those FTs consistently he's going to be even more dangerous in the paint.

His TS% is going to skyrocket.

Great report - it encapsulates and expands on alot of my own thoughts on the matter
Foye is fine as a starter

But its Billups’ clutch pedigree under pressure playoff situations that make this loss tough. It’s been said ad nauseum, but he brought that finals MVP/Mr Big Shot charisma that gives CP and the rest of the Clippers a certain confident swagger that they can get to a win no matter how adverse the situation is. I still think the Clippers are contenders, but they are going to have to prove it to themselves now that Billups is out, and i believe they will. Blake’s improved FT shooting, Foye’s starter production, and the addition of Kenyon are really encouraging.

Still, the playoffs are a different animal, and polarizing as he is around here, a guy like JR Smith could be that x-factor for the inevitable game like tonight where Mo and CP were cold. Either way, Clips are looking good going forward, regardless of tonights loss.

Isn't this just the perception that Sharp was talking about in his article?

The clutch pedigree / Mr Big Shot charisma. Most people buy into it including Chauncey most of all. But at 34 years old Billups isn’t that player anymore. I liked having Billups if he would adapt his game to be a role-playing 2 guard. He had struggled some but I was under the impression he was more willing of his role and his game was going to get better as the year went on. Still there was always that possibilty that he would revert to his old ways and cost the Clippers a game with too much chucking.
I agree with Sharp in that the Clippers can replace if not improve on Chauncey’s production on the court while still having his leadership and presence off it. As for the playoffs, having Chauncey’s experience would have been nice but it was also just as likely he would struggle more then enhance his game. I think Clippers fans would have been expecting to much out off Billups come playoff time.

I agree that his 'mr clutch' days could be behind him but

What Im talking about is less about his on court production and more the general air of confidence and swagger that he brings to the rest of the team both on the court and in the locker room, like the glue that keeps them together. But yes, i think this team will be able to fill the void left by his injury, an maybe even bring in a better player.

Hmm
But in the end, this is the one injury to their big six that the Clippers can most easily absorb.

I’d say 2nd injury they could most easily absorb. Overall based on his size and defense he’s ahead of Mo (its just hard to play Mo and CP3 together defensively).

I'm not so sure

Mo getting injured would have been worse as there is no substitute for what he does – he ups the tempo and brings us a scoring threat off the bench who can make his own shot

Well its a matter of debate

but you lose your best SG you end up having to start Foye. You lose Mo and Foye takes up more minutes off the bench, the rotation would have to be determined by VDN to how to have enough offense and defense out there at once. Regarding the other 4, the drop off from Butler to Gomes is so steep. BG and CP3 are elite players, while DJ is the only true big and their best defensive player.

Here's more

http://www.82games.com/1112/11LAC1.HTM#5man

Clips with Paul-Billups-DJ-Griffin-Butler have a +55 lineup this year (184 minutes). Swap out Mo and they have a +/- of 0 (in 58 minutes).

The offense is actually better with Mo in but the defense is terrible with Mo at SG.

Kind of interesting that you didn't mention

That of all combos of five clippers they show swapping out billups for mo and for foye as second and third best respectively. Given that these two units will now seeped playing time with CP3 they should do even better. Actually supports Steve’s post and underlying article.

My bad

They were differentiating based on minutes played and mo and foye were second and third. However given that the plus – minus with foye was positive and he plays well as a starter and will get more time with CP3 we should be ok.

Not sure what you're talking about

Swapping Foye for Billups has produced a +6 (not sure how much this changed after last night, especially with the bad 3rd quarter). But clearly Billups in the starting 5 produced the best results.

Because it is based on far less minutes at a time with that unit

If that is the primary unit it should play better together. IMO.

Play better than when Billups played?

Doubtful, he’s a more efficient scorer than Foye and he’s a better defender (especially of SGs) than Mo. The Clips can mitigate the loss of Billups by signing JR Smith though.

No, CP3 will have more control now - we should just let it play out
What does that even mean?

Are you saying the Clips shouldn’t add anyone?

I think he means CP3 deferred to Chauncey occasionally even though CP3 is 10x better than Chauncey

So even if CP3 deferred to Chauncey only 30% of the time, that’s 30% more times that CP3 will be running the play now. Of course, he might get tired earlier too.

Yes, I'd rather have CP3 running the show than Chauncy any day

So this is like addition by subtraction. CP3 can make Foye a better player IMO by getting him the ball where he needs it and only when it is appropriate.

I think the Clips would benefit from adding someone but they are not in dire or desperate straits now and we needn’t overreact.

It is a gross oversimplificatoin to just say that we are simply replacing Chauncy with Foye and based on Foye’s prior numbers he’s gonna suck.

CP3's numbers haven't changed

nor has he been deferring anymore than he has in the past. There’s nothing to back this up besides some off-hand analysis that’s not supported by anything measurable.

He deferred to Chauncy - just watch the games

Not interested in arguing

I have been

he’s not deferring, CP3 has made the vast majority of the decisions. His usage rate is the same as its been the last two years. Clearly you only see what you want to see.

Clearly you just want to argue

We can agree to disagree. No more discussoin needed. Thanks.

Cool

Didn’t know it was a discussion if one side presents facts and the other side shows up with nothing to add.

You seem to be itching for a fight - feel free to look elsewhere
has been less recently

at the beginning, Paul let Williams and Chauncey handle the ball, and sometimes Chris wouldn’t see it for the whole possession. Really has gone away the last couple of weeks.

Weird

Somehow neither CP3 nor Chauncey’s usage rates went down.

One of those two certainly

I think reasonable people can disagree on Mo versus Chauncey. A big part of the debate would hinge on season numbers versus career numbers. Based on season numbers, Mo has been MUCH better. But it’s reasonable to expect that he won’t remain that productive.

Butler more efficient?

With you on the rest of the article except for that one nitpick. Chauncey’s at .554 TS% compared with .534 for Butler, but your general argument still holds if you substitute Mo for Caron.

I cheated

I tried to say Caron is shooting more efficiently, not scoring more efficiently. Caron’s effective FG% is much better on the season. But yes, Chauncey’s TSP is better, which I tried to touch on in the paragraph about getting to the line.

Really good article

Many points I agree with. The biggest miss is the locker room leadership.
The on floor contribution can be covered more or less by Minutes for Foye,Mo and more shots for Blake, CP3.

Just Looking At The Data

Billups was getting to the FT line 5.6 times per 36 minutes vs Foye at only 2.2 at Mo at only 2.4 per 36 minutes. Especially since Billups probably got most of his FTs late in close games. While this may not matter so much in the first quarter it does matter in the fourth quarter especially in close games. Billups and Mo were both making about the same percentage of their FTA about 90%. Foye is down at 75%.

So losing Billups will hurt late in close games because of this.

The rest of the numbers are all pretty close on a per 36 minute basis except points per 36 minutes where Foye is the lowest by far among the three players. The difference between Billups and Foye due primarily to Billups getting a lot more FTs per 36 minutes.

Not just in late games

Foye and Mo live and die by their outside shots and the stats support that. When the offense stagnates and the 3pts aren’t falling like last night, then are guards will struggle to generate offense going to the basket.

Yeah but Foye is not bad at creating his own shot and plays better as a starter

More time with CP3 should bode well for him. not to say he’s Billups but it ins’t a terrible sit

True

However, even though all points count the same the NBA is a game of runs so early leads tend to disappear or reverse.

In your favor are the stats that show that the team that wins the 3rd quarter more often wins the game, more so than winning any other quarter.

On the other hand Billups is better getting to the FT line than both Williams and Foye. This is especially important late in close games.

ISTM that the Clippers gain nothing with the loss of Billups and overall including the intangibles I think his loss will hurt the Clippers more than it will help them.

I agree that Billups is great at drawing fouls. However, CP3 is no slouch either

I would just give the ball to CP3. I’d rather have it in his hands then Billups anyway.

I was thinking during Mo’s recent hot streak that Mo should be finishing games instead of Billups. He’s a good free throw shooter too – he just isn’t as aept at drawing fouls.

That's quite a bit of burden on CP3

and he’s shown a preference for getting other guys going than looking for his own shot. Night in and out he’s going to break down if he’s your primary ballhandler and clutch scorer.

Yes, but the difference is that he still runs the show

He is the man – except he has to defer to Chauncy from time to time. He’s not going to defer to Foye. He will have to be the primary ballhandler and clutch scorer if we want to win. He’s the best at both on this team.

Leadership am
Experodn,eeadership and Swagger
sorry, new smart phone
Experience, Leadership, and Swagger

No substitute for it. Billups is a big loss. How and when points are scored is extremely important in winning games…especially close ones. And in the playoffs, those attributes mentioned above, is the difference between winning a championship and getting bounced in the first round.

Foye is terrible at creating his own shot

unless you count taking long 2s as creating his own shot.

The Clippers need another 2 guard

The combo of Foye, Mo, and Bledsoe can probably replace Billups’ production on the court, but I think his injury gives the Clippers a chance to upgrade with a free agent or trade. Whether it be JR Smith or acquiring a player like Courtney Lee or Morrow, the Clippers have the opportunity to add another piece to take the next step.
With the 4 guard rotation I just don’t trust Bledsoe. Coming off his inconsistent rookie year and an injury, I don’t have the confidence he can play the role the Clippers need. They need a guard who can knock down shots and play some solid defense. I don’t believe Bledsoe will ever be a good shooter and while he may become a good defender, he’s not there yet and certainly can’t be expected to have success against bigger 2 guards.

How does it give "the Clippers a chance to upgrade with a free agent or trade"?

They’re over the cap, they can’t add significant money to their payroll, and the only real trade piece they have is Bledsoe, who they seem reluctant to trade and might not bring much anyway.
I’m with you on the questionable value of Bledsoe in the lineup, but losing Billups doesn’t increase their chance to upgrade at all.

LAC has a trade exception as well (for whatever that’s worth)

They had that before Billups injury.

Mwhite, go find a team that’s 3.7M over the luxury tax and has a valuable wing they want to dump who has less than a 6M salary (anything more would put the Clips over the lux tax).
I think it can’t be done. Square peg, hexagonal hole.

I would think you’d pair Bledsoe with the trade exception. Team out of conention dumps an expiring and/or expensive wing for a young player and cap relief.

Not saying there’s a fit out there (which is why I think Smith is the best option if he’s interested,) but that’s how I think the mechanics would work. It’s a bit wider field of candidates than you are suggesting by limiting it to teams over the tax

Or can you not combine the trade exception with a player? Not sure of the cap rules anymore.

Can't combine player with trade exception

Can combine the exception with draft picks though I believe.

I don't know about the draft picks.

But the rule hasn’t changed at all. Anyway, the Clips have no picks to trade.

This year's second round i think

but yeah thats not going to get you anything.

didn't we get a couple 2nd rounders from NOH in the CP3 trade (which is odd)?
Some mis-wording on my part

In regards to their cap space or trade assests it doesn’t help, but Billups injury can force the Clippers FO to be more aggressive in addressing the issue of adding another guard. I think they were interested in adding JR if he would sign but not looking any deeper then that. Perhaps now they’ll be more willing to look for options on other teams. Courtney Lee, Anthony Morrow, Landry Fields. Can any of these guys be had with any combo of Bledsoe, second round picks, or the trade exceptions? With Billups healthy I don’t think this was an option in the FO’s mind.

There are more options though, no?

Butler can play the 2. Thus, they can get either a 2 or a 3. More flexibility IMO.

Butler has never really played the 2 in the NBA

The wings are almost interchangeable except 2s then to be smaller and quicker which aren’t favorable matchups for a 31 year old Caron. You could play Butler at the 2 but its less than ideal.

Okay, yeah maybe it lights a fire under their buts to get a deal done.

I’d like it to be a big guard/swing man, someone who can serve minutes at the sf spot. I agree with you that Bledsoe almost certainly has to be part of the package in order to bring back a player of any quality. And the TPE’s are probably worthless.

That's what I'm looking for - a little fire to make a trade

Agreed – big guard/swing man. Someone who can start as the 2 guard or come of the bench to spell Butler and Foye. And its not as if I hate Bledsoe. I think he may be a decent player. Its just given the Clips new situation we can’t wait and see what happens. Need to have someone who is productive now.
Would have to find a desperate team to move a player for the TPE. Maybe a player who’s a free agent after this year that the team isn’t interested in signing long term.

Losing Billups Does Not Make The Clippers Better

but worse. How much worse remains to be seen. Of course if the Clippers still manage to win the NBA title it will be moot. On the other hand if the Clippers do not win the NBA title then we will never know if was because of the loss of Billups

It depends on who they sign to replace him
In addition, Foye and Mo should play better with more face time with CP3

So you can’t say definitively that the team will be worse without Billups given who else they have. What if they slide Butler over to the 2 and sign a good young athletic SF?

I really like Chase Budinger

I wonder if the Rockets let Flynn go off to the Lakers or Knicks (as has been mentioned), if they accept Bledsoe and pick for Budinger? He’s got a great work ethic, can shoot, is athletic. Very good young player. Probably means they will keep him though!

He's not bad
Can't see Rockets parting with Budinger this season

Rockets are currently a playoff team, and Budinger was big for them last night in a win @ POR. Its going to be tough to find a quality wing via trade, as most of them are currently playing for decent teams (though that all could change a month from now). Then there are guys like Ariza that could be had but he’s got a bad contract and not a great 3pt shooter, despite his good title run with Lakers.

I doubt they trade Budinger for that package

for one he’s dirt cheap with a team option of under $1 million next year.

Plus Morey is the King of Basketball stats and would definitely not be high on a turnover machine like Bledsoe.

If you want to trade Bledsoe for maximum value you’ll need to find a team that’s more enamored with his “potential” than his actual production.

It was the potential I was hoping he'd look at. I know Morey is more stats based but then again he did bring in Jonny Flynn!!!

He likes to get those players in and look to make a trade though (when Stern allows it). Bledsoe is a talent that a lot of teams would like but I agree, this package isn’t really enough for Chase B.

We would be getting rid of Bledsoe with his stock low. We need to give him some minutes and raise his stock if we want to get something decent back for him I think.

Not sure if he wanted Flynn

I think he wanted the Motiejunas kid (20th pick in the 2011 draft) and to get rid of Brad Miller.

Bledsoe's value

is probably all over the place depending on the team.

On the one hand he had a interesting rookie year with his athleticism and energy. On the other hand he was really turnover prone and didn’t display pure PG skills.

If he wasn’t injured this he might have played poorly which would lower his stock. Right now he’s still an unknown.

Personally I think the Clips/Olshey overvalue him (hence the CP3 negotiations) so not sure if he gets dealt unless its for a great offer (which probably won’t happen).

Both sides overvalued him by your argument

And it is hard to say. He was in college for one year and played in Wall’s shadow.

As I said

Its tough to gauge his value. The Clippers apparently value him a lot, enough to where it jeopardized the CP3 trade.

The excuse of him playing behind Wall only helps Bledsoe as it creates a excuse for his poor point play in college and the NBA while its more likely he just doesn’t possess these pure point skills to begin with.

Not sure they would trade him

but you definitely want him for your volleyball team.

How can they not be worse?

they lost a starter, leader and efficient player. Even if you add JR Smith or another SF you still lost a rotation player.

He's slow, takes too many shots and CP3 defers to him too much

He’s not the perfect player CC.

How hard is it to comprehend

you lose a starting player and your top SG for nothing you don’t get better, its that simple.

Stop

Mo Williams will get alot more minutes and he’s also a starter. CP3 will get more minutes with the ball, always a good thing since he’s better then Billups.

Let’s not argue please.

I've already shown

how Mo and CP3 can’t co-exist defensively. CP3 is already at his usual usage rate. Do you have any actual points?

No you haven't

And while that might not be ideal, they can coexist offensively. The key stat is who wins the games.

We’ll see.

I already shown you the difference in D with Mo and Billups

Mo can’t guard 2s that much is obvious to anyone.

I'm with CC

There’s no way we’re somehow better because of this. If Billups were playing badly, that’s one thing, but he was efficient. And his D couldn’t be worse than Mo’s. We’re worse.

True

However as it stands they have already played one game without him and there is no signee who has signed.

Don't you think they need a little time to adjust?
Of course

you lose a starter and get nothing in return well of course it negatively impacts the team.

I miss Chauncey already

but I do not miss seeing his name yesterday in the headlines of 6 FanShots.

If you noticed, his end game hasn't been 100% amazing.

True, he got a game winner against Dallas, but why were we in that spot? He turned it over… twice. Minnesota ended up burning us with a 3 pointer to win it, yet again, why were in that spot? Billups made a move to early and he left time on the clock. With a healthy Chris Paul, we have who I believe to be the best closer in the game today. Honestly, I think we lost a leader on the court, but I also imagine that he can be a leader off the court. I think Foye can be a solid starter, because when he has started in the past, he has proven that he is worthy of that spot (I believe he was somewhere around 16PPG with 4 APG?). I think Chauncey is a great guy, but I have to agree that we can absorb this. The only thing that has really surprised me is that we didn’t go out with the passion of a team who just lost a leader on and off the court.

I did some digging around and based on Foye's stats as a starter I say 13 ppg 3 apg and 2 rpg in 30 mpg looks possible

Player GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS eFG% TS%
Foye 30 35:05 5,07 12,47 0,406 1,90 5,27 0,361 2,97 3,23 0,918 2,07 4,10 1,37 0,63 2,33 15,00 0,483 0,540
Billups 20 30:24 4,15 11,40 0,364 2,40 6,25 0,384 4,25 4,75 0,895 2,50 4,00 0,45 0,15 1,90 14,95 0,469 0,554

funnest part is that Foye as a starter during his time with the Clips hits 91,8% of his free throws
and 1,37 steals and 0,63 blocks which is way above his carreer averages

TS% of 0.54 is quite respectable.

Unfortunately BC, those numbers are unreadable.
Just read the last column then ;)
paste them in excel and you'll be golden
In the 4th quarter and "In The Clutch" this year ..

Chauncey Billups was shooting 41% from deep and 97% from the line in the 4th quarter.

He was shooting 44% from deep and 100% from the line in the clutch.

He did have the clutch gene, that’s for sure.

He did have the clutch gene, that’s for sure.

Still has it but at the moment it is dormant. LOL

It's the crutch gene

unless he’s asian it’s not the same.

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