Mike Prada of SBNation takes an in-depth look at whether or not the Clippers are contenders this season. He goes through a litany of issues, in a good news/bad news sort of approach. He asks some good questions -- raises some good points.
There are some misunderstandings out there that continue to irk me. You've all heard me complain about the 'point differential' argument before. I like stats as much as the next guy, and I know that point differential is a consistent predictor of playoff success. But that's at the conclusion of a regular season, when the schedules have balanced out. Less than half way through, when the Clippers have played a lot of good teams and very few patsies, it's wildly misleading to point to point differential -- at least without making some mention of strength of schedule.
Consider: Prada says this of the Clippers point differential:
The Clippers are outscoring their opponents by an average of just two points a game this year, which is 14th in the league and eighth in the Western Conference.
Well, actually, the Clippers are outscoring their opponents by three points per game, which is tenth in the league and sixth in the West. Why the discrepancy? Because for some reason he references data from February 13, on February 16.
The real point is that the Clippers total point differential is 81 points -- they've scored 2,661 points while they've allowed 2,580. In two games against the Wizards and one against the Bobcats, the Clippers outscored those teams by a combined 69 points. Meaning that the vast majority of the Clippers positive point differential comes from three wins. Which explains why the needle moved a lot between the 13th and 16th. And that's the dirty secret of point differential -- you build it up against the bad teams. The weakest teams in the Western Conference are the Hornets, Kings, Suns and Warriors. The Clippers will play those teams 10 times this season -- but they've played them once so far.
You can't single out close wins over good teams as a positive factor ("The Clippers are 8-3 in games decided by six points or less, and those eight wins include ones over the Blazers, Heat, Mavericks, Nuggets, Jazz, Magic and 76ers") as a positive factor and then point to a low overall point differential as a negative factor while ignoring the overall strength of schedule. It is undeniably good to win close games against good teams -- but if that represents a large portion of your schedule, your point differential is going to be low. Those were close wins, after all.
Anyway, check out the post and see what you think. Are the Clippers contenders?
0 recs | 15 comments
I read this article before you posted it before, Steve. The one thing that still bothering
me is how Mike and other writers are still referencing to TJ Simmers article to show how “unhappy and discontent” Mo Williams is.
lovinglosangeles - February 16, 2012
K-Mart knows if they're contenders
Last night after the win, he was asked how the Clips compared to his NJ team that made the finals. He said, this team has more talent, but they’re still learning to play together, particularly on defense. The sky is the limit potential-wise, but questions remain if they’ll be able to live up to that potential in a short schedule with limited playoff experience. Here’s hoping it all comes together.
RedHotHollywood - February 16, 2012
Point differential is one of those things that are not really understood
so props for steve for pointing it out.
Bit weird that Prada, the Wizard blogger, comes with this article after we beat the Wizards handily.
BelgianClipper - February 16, 2012
I saw your name on that blog asking a question about the Thunder and the Clippers
lovinglosangeles - February 16, 2012
yeah I know
having done some work on it this last few days I noticed that the Thunder are even worse if you look at point differential vs wins. But point differential is quite meaningless during the season: strength of opposition can vary greatly among teams and even one blow out game can have a major impact on it.
BelgianClipper - February 16, 2012
How are Clippers not contenders?
We’ve beaten all the top teams in the league and are still gelling. By no means a lock but with out a doubt can contend….I mean really, what team is head and shoulders above Lob City right now?
And I’m discounting the Spurs and Bulls losses bc that team knew each other for about 2.7 seconds…
SchmidttyMcFunstuff - February 16, 2012
I think with the shortened season comparison between teams from two different conferences are going to be mostly invalid.
For example you can’t compare the Sixers to the Clippers. The Sixers may have a better differential, but they are playing against the likes of the Bobcats, Wizards, Nets, and Raptors. Who are the bottom of the barrel on the West? Golden State, Sacramento, Phoenix and New Orleans. I would say three of those four teams are better than the bottom 5 of the East. With such difference in parity between the East and the West most of these comparisons are useless.
shay - February 16, 2012
Here's a good way to compare Sixers to Clippers
They played, in Philly, and Clippers won. So there’s that.
Steve Perrin - February 16, 2012
Although
Yes, it will be pointless to compare west to east. But by the end of the season, comparing West teams to West teams based on point differential will be useful.
Steve Perrin - February 16, 2012
Definitely!
they are contenders in my eyes….sometimes the stats dont measure what a team can really do and kind of heart the team has. This team has heart and its called CP3 and Blake… CP3 with his competitiveness and blake with his unwavering drive. I think that type of thing is contagious. The clippers are Top 3 in the west and top 5 in the league! We have heart and grit! We can take it!
CHAMPIONSHIP FOR CHAUNCEY
My dukie twinkles - February 16, 2012
It's too soon
to use point differential. It’s a decent indicator but you need long-term results. This season’s scheduling is odd and imbalanced. Normally I’d start looking after the halfway point of the season but you’ll need to be about 3/4 before even referring to point differential this year.
—Dave
Dave - February 16, 2012
Commissar Stern Add Jeremy Lin To Shaq Team Which Includes Blake
Buddahfan - February 16, 2012
Commissioner Kenny Smith!
SurfinQ00 - February 16, 2012
Does anyone dislike DJ Foster as much as I do
What a “sky is falling” lame*** … He never has anything positive to say about the clips. Said on Max and Marcellus that they would come home from Grammy road trip 2-4 (probably only bc we already had 2 wins otherwise he would have said 0-6) and today he is blasting the D when it is consistently improving…I think I’m officially done with ClipperBlog
SchmidttyMcFunstuff - February 16, 2012
I like and respect DJ Foster a lot
Even though he’s been kinda hard on the team this season, his writing has always been solid. You can’t fault someone for taking a cautious or critical road for analysis. Otherwise all writers might as well be Mason and Ireland, who only ever seem to have good things to say about the Lakers without contributing anything meaningful. There’s lots of writers like that.
I’m not as much of a fan as the other Clipperblog contributors though. I read it for Foster and Arnovitz.
Chris McD - February 17, 2012
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