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Clippers Potential Roster Moves

OK, let's give this topic the comprehensive ClipperSteve treatment it deserves.

The addition of Kenyon Martin to the Los Angeles Clippers addresses a need for quality and especially front court scoring off the bench. That's good. Martin looked better than anyone had a right to expect in his debut Wednesday night in Cleveland. He's not a center, but I'm becoming less concerned with that. If they can beat Orlando on the road with Reggie Evans defending Dwight Howard for long stretches of the game, then who really cares if they have another seven footer behind DeAndre Jordan? Martin was the best available front court upgrade, they got him, so the needs lie elsewhere now.

Star-divide

If you were going to add one player to the Clippers roster at this point, it would be a wing player capable of playing the two or the three. This need existed prior to the injury to Chauncey Billups, but it is more acute now, given that Billups was one of the bigger guards on the roster. A big wing would address a couple of issues. It would provide an alternative to the unproductive Ryan Gomes as the backup small forward, and it would also provide some size on the wing for defending the league's bigger twos like Kobe Bryant and Joe Johnson. In a prefect world, this player would be a great scorer, a great rebounder and a great defender -- someone along the lines of LeBron James. In reality, the Clippers will have to take what they can get, but if you were going to prioritize the attributes, defense would have to come first, since the team has plenty of scoring already.

So what are the options? Let's go through all the issues:

Roster spots

The roster is currently at 14, so the Clippers have a spot available. The team waived the unguraranteed contract of Solomon Jones on Tuesday to get down to 14. Roster flexibility should not be a limiting factor in making moves at this point. The team has a spot available at present, and if for whatever reason they needed another (if for instance they found deals for both of their TPEs), they have more than one reasonable candidate to waive outright. It would cost the team some money to waive Brian Cook at this point, but it's not like he's adding much. Same goes for Travis Leslie, but the perception is that he at least has some upside. At any rate, roster spots are not a problem.

Traded player exceptions

The Clippers have two traded player exceptions, for $3.9M (Eric Gordon) and $2.9M (Al-Farouq Aminu) in the Chris Paul trade. Please don't ask me to explain how that all transpired, because I do not know. Here's what you need to know about TPEs. You can't combine them with each other. It would be great if the Clippers could trade their two TPEs for one player making up to $6.8M -- but they can't. You can't use them to take up extra salary in a trade. You can't even do any fuzzy math, taking back 125% or 150% or even 101% of the salary in a trade. You pretty much can't do anything with a TPE except use it as is. So the $3.9M TPE is available to trade for a player making less than or equal to $3.9M. Period.

Essentially, this means that the second TPE is almost completely irrelevant. The odds of finding one trade candidate that works under either TPE is pretty remote -- finding a second one would be next to impossible.

So for the TPE, you would look for players that fit the Clippers needs profile that make less than $3.9M. Someone like, say, Tony Allen, who is making $3.1M this season. Oh and one more thing. The other team would have to want to trade the player, which Memphis will definitely NOT want with Allen. The Clippers could include draft picks to try to entice a potential trade partner -- but unfortunately it would be complicated to include anything other than a second round pick. Not to mention that the Clippers are probably not eager to trade another first round pick after trading away three in the last 20 months.

Eric Pincus throws out several names in his article on the Clippers search for a wing. Names like Nicolas Batum, Mickael Pietrus, Marquis Daniels, Dahntay Jones, Anthony Parker, Rudy Fernandez, Courtney Lee and Nick Young. This is more or less a list of wings that make less than $3.9M this season, and therefor are candidates for the Clippers' TPE. But it's not as if the Blazers would give up Batum for nothing.

We'll come back to TPEs a little later when we look at the motivations of other teams.

Trades

Regarding trades, let's adopt the position that the Clippers are not going to give up anything that they value particularly highly. So the assumption here is that Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe (not to mention Blake Griffin and Chris Paul) are not going to be involved in trades to improve the team now. So what do they have to trade? They have a couple of expiring contracts.

The TPEs are more valuable as trade chips because they can get a team under the tax threshold (or simply reduce their tax bill) NOW. But expiring contracts can be helpful for rebuilding teams looking to clear cap space for the off-season. The Clippers have Randy Foye ($4.25M) and Brian Cook ($1.223M) on expiring deals, and would happily part with either one to get a big wing back. (Foye has value to the team, but would become redundant with the player they seek; Cook is ballast.) If you combine the salaries of Foye and Cook, you get $5.473M or so, and unlike with trades involving TPEs, there is also some wiggle room with normal trades. The Clippers are below the luxury tax and would be free to take back up to 150% plus $100,000 in the salary they trade out. So 150% of $5.473M plus $100K allows the Clippers to target players making up to $8.3M in return for Foye/Cook. That's significant, as it includes a much larger group of players than the TPE of $3.9M, like those who have recently signed MLE deals that their teams have grown to regret.

So for instance, one presumes that the Suns would be more than happy to get a do over on their Josh Childress signing, and a Foye for Childress trade works just fine. The huge downside to that for the Clippers is the three more seasons and $21M left on Childress' deal beyond this year. Dallas might even be interested in getting rid of Shawn Marion, as it would help facilitate their plan to make a run at Deron Williams and Dwight Howard this summer. As with the TPE, other teams might be looking for a sweetener in any trade beyond simply expiring deals, but the Clippers don't have much sugar in the sugar bowl.

Free Agents

The Clippers could always sign a free agent. There are only two problems: (1) there aren't many free agents worth a damn still available -- if they were worth something, they'd be on a team already; and (2) the Clippers can only offer the veteran's minimum because they're over the cap and have used their other exceptions.

J.R. Smith is one free agent that is a cut above any other player available, because he's been tied up playing in China. His season there is done in about five days (his team was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs recently) at which point he'll be able to return to the NBA. The Clippers have expressed interest in Smith, and he would fit their need well -- perhaps not perfectly, but better than any other available free agent. Of course, lots of other teams are interested in J.R. also. The Clippers can only offer the minimum, so would J.R. be willing to play here just because it's a good fit on a good team? He can make more money and get a LOT more shots in New York, but he wouldn't make it as far in the playoffs.

10 day contracts

This week marked the start of the period in which NBA teams can sign 10 day contracts. Really, this is just a sub category of free agency, but it allows a team to take a low risk chance on a player. There are plenty of big wings in the D-League that would love a chance to show VDN what they can do -- the question is, are any of them better than Travis Leslie? Still, teams find productive players in the D-League every year, so it's a tool that can't be ignored.

Scott Schroeder of SBNation put together a primer on D-League players ripe for 10 day contracts on Monday. Manny Harris, a former Cav, might be a candidate. There are some familiar names on the list like former first rounders Gerald Green, Morris Almond and Derrick Byars, not to mention former Clippers second rounder Marqus Blakely and JamesOn Curry, who had a cup of coffee with the Clippers a couple season ago.

So Where Does This Leave Us?

Where does all of this leave us? With the news that Smith's Golden Bulls are out of the playoffs, I doubt that anything will happen until his situation is resolved. J.R. is the Clippers first choice, and if they get him, they'll be happy. If they don't get him (which they probably won't), they'll have to move on. We should know one way or the other in about a week.

If Smith winds up in a uniform other than Clippers red, white and blue, then it might be time to take a flyer on a 10 day guy. It's unlikely that they're going to find the answer in the D-League, but it wouldn't be the first time a D-League player became a contributor. I really liked Marqus Blakely when he was with the Clippers in Summer League and would be curious to see what he might be able to do. Signing a player to a 10 day contract doesn't preclude continuing to look for trade opportunities, either with the TPEs or with Foye/Cook expiring deals. The trade deadline this year is March 15; about four weeks after J.R. Smith becomes available. So you can wait on Smith's decision, sign a guy to a couple 10 day deals, and still be a week away from the deadline. Teams will be much more realistic about what they can get as the deadline approaches.

They'll also take a hard look at their finances. The TPEs may not yield much on the trade market, but if they have value it will be to a team that is into the luxury tax -- ideally, just barely over the threshold. Trading a salary of X for a trade exception can save a tax team 2X; it can save even more for a team that can get itself under the tax with a trade. Memphis becomes a really interesting potential trade partner in this light. They're a little more than a million over the tax threshold, according to ShamSports. They're not going to give up Tony Allen for nothing; but what about Quincy Pondexter? Or might they be willing to swap O.J. Mayo for Randy Foye, just for the tax savings (the difference in salaries would get them just under the threshold)?

Those tax teams are the ones that will be most interested in one of the Clippers TPEs. Unfortunately, none of them seem to have any players of particular interest to the Clippers. A whole bunch of teams got under the cap this summer via amnesty -- of those that didn't, the best choices other than Pondexter might be Pietrus or Daniels from the Celtics. Not terrible -- but not game changers.

So other than 10 day contracts, it's wait and see who else becomes available. A $3.9M TPE is probably not going to be enough to get the player the Clippers need, but as the trade deadline approaches, you never know who is going to be shopped. Milwaukee seems to have a glut of players on the wing, but the ones the Clippers can afford (Shaun Livingston, Carlos Delfino, Mike Dunleavy Jr) aren't signed particularly long term, so the Bucks would be looking for some value in return. Most likely, if the Clippers are going to fill this hole, they'll have to do it with a good player on a bad contract -- someone like Childress or Trevor Ariza who fills the need the Clippers have, but is making much more money than they are worth.

There's one last possibility -- the trade deadline will bring it's fair share of big trades. Deals that see teams swapping their problems, or veterans included in deals to make salaries match. Invariably, some of those players get bought out after the fact because they don't fit into their new team's long term plans. Those players will become free agents after they clear waivers, and will be looking for attractive destinations where they can chase a ring. And for once, the Clippers qualify as one of those teams.

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Comments

yeee dog

First?

I really don’t think Clipsnation has enough users to warrant all these ‘first’ posts. This isn’t TMZ or something.

did TMZ invent “first” or something?

All I gotta say is, "Who are you people?"

I think “first” posts are dumb, but at least the past ones have been by ClipsNation regulars who contribute something to the community.

No, but it’s a crazily popular website. At least on a site like TMZ (I don’t actually know if they have comments sections or anything) being “first” is statistically unlikely.

NETS fan here im so happy for Clips that at last has a contending team

i feel sorry for billups that he got injured that bad cuz u were so great with him hope that mo williams pick up the slack and not being cocky and finish the job u gotta own the LA now

thanks! I hope you guys get Dwight and keep him away from that other LA team.
Please tell Nets blogger Jadee1227 (aka Napoleon Dynamite) hello.
ill say to him hi my man
Nice write up

Would be pretty funny if the Clippers added Mike Dunleavy Jr. He’s one of the better off-season bargains but given the family history with the Clippers was obviously not coming here. Still crazy things happen all the time (see Don Nelson) and the numbers do work.

Substitute Gomes for Foye in a trade for Childress. If you view Gomes as a sunk cost (he is) then Childress for 3 years 16 million is a lot more palatable (and the last year he becomes expiring contract trade bait).

Childress contract is too long

He is a better player than Gomes, no doubt about that but his contract is for 3 more years while Gomes is an expiring next season and we can use the amnest on him, i don’t know if i would do the trade. Maybe if Phoenix gave us a protected first.

i doubt phoenix gives us anything extra when they could just amnesty Childress themselves if they wanted to.

i agree his contract his too big and too long and when we’re going to be signing Blake to an extension and then CP3 to a new contract plus looking for a starting shooting guard this off-season, i don’t like his contract at all.

Its not that bad

Butler’s contract expires the year before then (he’ll be 34 then).

i'd rather have Gomes for 4million than Childress for 7million

mainly for cap purposes, but aside from Mo i don’t think any 2nd unit at best player should be worth that much. 7 million is a lot for a role player like Childress.

yeah it's not just the bad contract it's the fact that JChill is not very good

Per 48 minutes he’s averaging 10.3 points and 10.3 rebounds

Here’s the source on that:

http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/pho

can he even play SG? He is 6'8" (i'm not good at finding his SG stat numbers).

plus if he’s the back-up SF/SG then he’s gonna play about 24 minutes, and 5 points and 5 rebounds clearly isn’t worth 7 million per year.

What he’s worth is irrelevant to me. I guess you can be concerned about whether DTS will pay for a role player, but he’s been paying like crazy these days so your guess is as good as mine.

He’s a clear upgrade over Gomes at the 3 and Foye at the 2.

Is he going to play 48 minutes?

No, maybe 30 – so that’s about 7 and 7 assuming that he’s playing against second unit types, which he wouldn’t be.

Can he defend?

I guess the point is that I’m skeptical he’s any good if he’s just playing a few minutes off the bench for the Suns

Kevin Love didn’t start at the beginning of last year. Coaches do dumb shit all the time.

I don’t think he’s a perfect fit, I just like that he’s a clear upgrade from a guy who’s currently useless. Also, it’s not like we’re giving up much. We’re giving up the useless player. The only thing it costs is money, and LAC isn’t getting under the cap any time soon anyway (Paul, Griffin, etc.)

i'd rather save money for the off-season

when we will have some cap space to go after a starting SG before we extend Griffin the max (because JR Smith is coming to the Clippers, it’s my Valentine’s day wish to god).

Clips are over the cap either way

If Mo picks up his option.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/la_clippers.htm

And that’s without resigning Kenyon, Billups, Reggie.

The team will only have the MLE either way.

Why do you think is he an upgrade?

Even if so it would be slight and he’;s far too expensive IMO

Cap isn't the issue

Luxury tax is. Once Blake gets his extension we’ll be struggling to stay under the tax, and thus can’t afford to have Childress’s contract on our books.

Not necessarily

Mo, Gomes and Foye go off the books before Blake’s extension kicks in. Ideally Mo opts out this year and resigns at a lower annual salary but more spread out deal (ie 4 years, 25 million).

In 2013-2014 (the first year of BG’s max contract) the Clips will have Butler (maybe 8 million, last year of deal), DJ (11 mill), CP3 (assuming he resigns, 18.5 mill) and Blake’s max (does it start at 14 million?). That leaves the Clips about 20 million to fill out the rest of the roster before the tax hits.

Thanks for making my point for me

I think the figures you’ve got for Blake and CP3 are both low, but even if I use your numbers, that’s 20 million for the 10 remaining roster spots. Tie up more than a third of that for Childress and leave only 13 million for 9 spots? No thanks.

ClipperChuck loves Childress

I’m not sold due to his contract and his lack of PT on a mediocre PHX team. I’d much rather the team take a flyer on Al Thornton or Gerald Green due to contract issues.
After the Simers article, I woudn’t necessarily consider Mo “untradeable”. Maybe a 4 player trade can work? We’ll see…

Why would they take Gomes?

Why would anyone take Gomes?

Less money and years. It’s not like PHX is on the path for a championship.

This

Suns cut cost (Sarver is cheap) and start trying to rebuild post-Nash.

it makes me wonder

how did we end up with Cookie? and why was he signed to a 2-year contract?

Incriminating photos of Olshey

is the most likely guess.

He was considered a more versatile Novak since he’s taller and can stand on the floor and be considered a center in a pinch. He was given two years because Olshey figured a lockout was coming and he didn’t want to have to scramble for end of the bench type guys in a shortened training camp and contract signing period.

someone's been paying attention

exactly right

Didn't know that - nice
Oh you had to give a serious answer
Here are some names that come to mind.....

….just names mind you….Corey Maggette and Al Thornton!

Maggette

Maggette is too expensive… unless the Bobcats buy him out, I see no way the Clippers can get him. Thornton could be a 10 day guy.

Where is Thornton now? I haven’t heard anything about him since we traded him.

Playing devil's advocate for a moment

If the Clippers hit their season average of 3s and beat the Cavs, would there be such heavy talk of trades/FAs? CP3 and Mo hit their averages from the field the game is decided in the Clippers’ favor and we’d all be looking for a 6th straight road win tonight. Just a thought.

Then again the last time the Clippers were buyers Vlad Rad brought back a nice pick up for the 06 playoff run.

Well

I wrote most of this post before that game, so yeah, I’d be talking about it.

how plausible would it be to trade for livingston back?

enough length to guard wings, but also able to toss thread-the-needle cross-court lobs to blake and deandre.

Liv

I’d love Livingston, but he’s in the final year of his deal so I don’t see what the Clippers have to offer MIL. TPE and a second rounder? I doubt they’re that desperate to save money.

Ha

In a prefect world, this player would be a great scorer, a great rebounder and a great defender — someone along the lines of LeBron James.

I literally LOL’d reading that.

Excellent post Steve
good post, detailed but lengthy

definitely interested in the Matrix (Shaw Marion) trade \
I would also sign JR Smith but the money may be too little
How about trade for Brandon Rush with GSW? I like his size and he can shoot the 3s.

He was also a pretty good pick for my fantasy team

Playing solid in GSW. I dunno about him as a defender though.

1) I wouldn’t be too quick to assume Mo and Bledsoe are off the table. I think both should be considered in the right trade. Mo has been fantastic, but let’s not kid ourselves, he’s probably going to regress as the season moves on. I can’t help but think there’s an argument to be made that LAC should sell high. Bledsoe is the third PG on the depth chart (after Mo and Paul) and is still raw. Add the fact that he’s missing valuable development time with being injured. He might be an impact player in the future (I have my doubts) but like it or not, this Clippers team needs to be in “win now” mode.

2) If you aren’t willing to trade either of those two, it’s pretty much JR Smith or bust.

Agree. Those guys should be available IF

it means we get a premier wing defender that makes sense as a longer term solution. I really don’t like how Mo gets scored on so often…

have to put a stake in the ground

The post runs 2200 words with them off the table. Would be longer with them on. I’ll say what I said about Gordon and the Chris Paul trade. Of course everyone is on the table. For the right trade, anyone and everyone is available. If the prefect piece is out there and it takes Mo Williams to get it, then by all means. (Though I’m not sure how much Mo at $8.5M is worth to trade partners.) I just know that the Clippers are not eager to trade those guys, and it narrows the possibilities to not consider them.

Thanks for the write up

Nice to have all this info in one place. Good hustle :)

JR and 10-Days

If JR takes our offer, I think he’ll be a good half-season “rental”. Honestly, I think CP3 and Billups (from the sidelines) can get him straight. If he just plays ball, he will produce and Clippers should win more ball games. If JR decides to go elsewhere, I think using the 10-day contract option is good. We can sign D-Leaguers and monitor the status of the league and it buys us time to make a move at the Trading Deadline (March 15). From now to the trading deadline, I think we can continue playing well and hold our position in the playoff race.

If the Knicks get JR I blame Jeremy Lin.

He has led them on a 3 game win streak, 2 of which had no Melo or Stat. Granted they are still half a game out of the playoffs, but look at all the national media attention he is getting them. I bet JR is thinking that could be him (it never could be him, but he probably thinks it).

Or I see JR possibly going to the TWolves because they have a hole at SG and have a lot of money to be able to spend on him and they are .500.

In recruiting, is VDN offering him the starting SG spot, or saying he’s the back-up for SG & SF? Hopefully he liked playing with Kenyon and Chauncey and CP3, cause i think that along with the clippers new national attention is our hope. Plus, he’s probably thinking he can save the Clippers with Chauncey getting hurt. He probably thinks lots of crazy things.

I'd like to take a shot on Nick Young

Kid can score the ball and I think it could really benefit him playing for a good team.

on defense might as well play 4 on 5
Young is a knuckle head. He doesn't listen to his coach. I'm tired of these bozo's. It's a new Clipper's team.
Anyone know who the potential buyout candidates are?

That seems like the most likely route to a player who can have a meaningful impact.

I remember players like Troy Murphy and Leon Powe getting bought out last year. A wing player of their caliber would certainly be welcome.

I dont know why we wouldnt trade Bledsoe at this point

Our team is doing great without him, he hasnt played at all this year, and he wasnt that great last year either.

Holding on to players like him can pay off if they turn out great, but at this point I think it would be better if we traded him for Pietrus and EwTuan Moore, or something like that.

if the Celtics trade Rondo for Gasol, then I think we could get Pietrus for Bledsoe but i want to keep Bledsoe if possible.

Bledsoe is also insurance in case CP3 doesn’t resign with us after next season, so he is valuable to us. Plus he did a good job replacing an injured Baron some games. Sure he was a bit sporadic, but he’s got that potential. Plus his value isn’t as high right now since he hasn’t played this year, and with Billups out he will get some burn when he gets healthy enough to play.

Lets get Nick Young!

Bring him back home to L.A! He doesnt seem to happy in DC. Bledsoe, TPE, 2 2nd rounders for Nick Young.. Work your magic Neil!

You can’t combine a TPE with players.

he said 2 2nd rounders, not 2 TPE's.

either way i think that is too much for Nick Young.

nevermind on the TPE (my bad), i still think

Bledsoe and 2 2nd rounders is too much for Nick Young.

I’d deal a trade exception for Elliot Williams. Dude gets no playing time in Portland.

Another possibility is Foye + Cook + future pick (maybe) to TOR for Leandro Barbosa.

Barbosa is an expiring deal like Foye & Cook so the only thing interesting to Toronto would be a future pick

and then i’d only offer a 2nd rounder for him.

I’m aware that he’s an expiring contract. At this point, Toronto might just give him away for two expiring contracts considering it’d be the same end game. I don’t expect them to but he is an interesting possibility. I’d consider dealing Foye and Bledsoe for him.

Dorell Wright

If the Ws are out of playoffs they might be willing to trade him being that Klay Thompson has been playing well. Just another name to throw out there.

He's a good spot up shooter.

I’ve noticed a trend with him. He has one good year and than two poor ones.

This post demonstrates why Steve is our Fearless Leader...

And I don’t care what other people say about him.

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