After the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks game on Saturday night and the reappearance of the dreaded three-guard lineup we saw in somewhat different form last year, I thought it was time to take a look at the gameflow chart on PopcornMachine.net (an interesting site that either is or should be in your favorites list).
PopcornMachine provides two interesting charts, the first is a detailed boxscore which includes all the usual stuff along with plus/minus, "help value", "production", and "efficiency" (you can find detailed definitions of those stats on the site). The second page is the "gameflow chart", and it's the chart we're primarily interested in today.
Go there, if you like, and play with it. It looks pretty simple, but as you get deeper you'll realize how much it reveals. If you move your mouse across the chart, windows open that break out each players activity for every string of minutes he played... and you can track who's on the court throughout the game.
The three-guard lineup is one issue, but I'm obviously not alone in my distress about the size and quality of the Clippers bench players... and the chart didn't relieve my concerns.
In the first half we saw coach Vinny Del Negro play what's becoming his usual rotation. The starters (DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul) played together for 6 minutes and 45 seconds. The two teams played roughly even basketball for this period. Then Del Negro brought in Ryan Gomes and Mo Williams for Billups and Butler. He took out DeAndre Jordan around two minutes later and brought in newcomer Reggie Evans. When Gomes comes out around two minutes into the second quarter, he's gone for good, never reappearing in the game.
Mo Williams, as the primary bench scorer, has an okay night. He goes 4/7, scores ten points, has four assists in 21 minutes, but has also has a disappointing +/- of -11, and he has three turnovers. Plus/minus of course can be hugely misleading and you have to measure it against who's on the floor for the other team. The Bucks primary reserves, who were usually on the floor versus Williams were Shaun Livingston and Jon Leuer. They were also had the Bucks highest plus/minus numbers at +11 and +14 (makes sense, right)? Of course Mo was also on the floor often against Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson, who both played a whopping 44+ minutes (in their fourth road game in six days, and first game of a back-to-back). Surprisingly, to me anyway, they both played the ENTIRE second half.
But what about the three guard line-up? With VDN determined to leave Ryan Gomes on the bench (most of his minutes went went to Brian Cook, who lost his regular minutes to Evans), he turned to a lineup featuring Williams, Paul, Billups, Jordan, and Griffin (though briefly with Cook and/or Evans) at around two minutes into the fourth quarter. The result, as you can see by the chart is that the Clippers took a lead of four points up to a lead of around six before Butler returned (replacing Williams). The players on the court for the Bucks for the bulk of it were the (tiring) starters less Ersan llyasova and Carlos Delfino, plus Livingston and Leuer, who had obviously earned their time.
The verdict on the three guard lineup? I'm disappointed to say there isn't one, the lineup was only on the court a few minutes and the results were inconclusive. The plus/minus for the team during that period seems to be a little better than even. When Gomes was on the floor in the first half (with Williams and not Billups) the plus/minus was a little less than even. So... replacing Butler with Gomes or three guards... is, at least for this one game, more or less a wash.
But the most disturbing stats are the continuing misery of the overall bench play. Ryan Gomes and Brian Cook (who did not appear on the court together) scored a combined 4 points and were -5 in 15 minutes. That, in tandem with Randy Foye's 4 points and -7 in 10.6 minutes, and Mo Williams okay numbers doesn't say much positive about the Clipper's reserves.
Okay then, what about the addition of Reggie Evans? He helped, right? Well... if helping is keeping Gomes on the bench sure, but I wonder about that. Evans was -2 overall, scored 3 points in 19 minutes and made only 1 of six free throws, adding to Jordan's 3/6 and Griffin's 6/11... and though he pulled down six rebounds, the Clips were still outrebounded 42-37. Different? Yes. Better? Not statistically anyway.
1 recs | 28 comments
Cool link, thanks!
That said, I’d hesitate to draw too many conclusions from a sample size of 1 game. In this particular game, Gomes picked up 3 fouls in the blink of an eye, Cook’s one redeeming feature — a decent outside shot — looked as bad as I’ve ever seen it, and one could argue Evans’s 1-6 from the line was the result of it being his first game action of the season. If you similarly looked at just the Houston game, you’d think we had one of the best benches in the league. Which of course isn’t true either, since beyond Mo and Evans our bench is pretty putrid.
boltsfan21 - January 9, 2012
+1
I give props to VDN for trying and and experimenting without the luxury of training camp/pre-season to do so. Mo Williams in this young season has a 4:1 assist to TO ratio so hard to judge by this one game or even over six games.
ganima - January 9, 2012
Hey no picking on Evans, you will not get invited into his fan club!
They brought him here to rebound and play defense. This guy is our enforcer
on this team. It just to be Rhino but he’s gone now. What i do agree with you
is Gomes and Cook are worthless. We can even trade them for a bag of chips.
I personally would bring in the rookie Trey because i think he has more
upside then those two put together.
ENCUEROMAN - January 9, 2012
I'm actually of the opinion that Gomes is a better option than the 3-guard option when Butler is resting...
But I didn’t find enough data to prove it.
John Raffo - January 9, 2012
This is our old instinct to match up to the other team instead of making them match up to us
Milph (and Steve) used to talk about how MDSr. always played this way. I wonder if anyone’s ever taken the time to look at which way is the more winning strategy…
Erik O - January 9, 2012
We were reminded of the opposite on the Bucks telecast
Kept commenting how every team (including the Clips) Shaun’s been on has tried to post him up without much success. Kills the offensive flow and puts him in akward position simply because of his size advantage.
I agree it would be interesting to see analyze which strategy works.
ganima - January 9, 2012
Interesting analysis. I'll have to check out that site, never heard it mentioned before.
On a side note, I can’t believe we haven’t out-rebounded an opponent once this season.
dulciusXasperis - January 9, 2012
I kinda liked the 3 guard lineup
for some reason, at least in short stretches
it never really sank in (at least in my mind) how many great PG the Clips have until I saw all 3 of the on the court together. Obviously I don’t think you can get away with it on a lot of teams, especially ones with stellar SFs. But at least in an effort to get the offense flowing I don’t mind seeing it, as long as it’s not killing them on the defensive end. I didn’t quite understand it in the bucks game, when Caron seemed like he was having a great game, but I know that sometimes we’ll have to be searching for the guy with the hot hand, or need a zone busting lineup. My only concern is getting too 3pt happy with those guys on the court, but hopefully it would easily spread out the inside to get some easy buckets as well.
osamu - January 9, 2012
The reason for this
was that Caron needed a blow. Caron was hot in the 3rd Q and so VDN left him in throughout and for the start of the 4th. When he was gassed, instead of bringing back Gomes, who was having a horrible game, he went to the 3-guard lineup for about 5 minutes, then brought Caron back for the final 5.
boltsfan21 - January 9, 2012
Good effort Swami
But I wouldn’t get lost in this stuff, at least not on a regular basis. I know we have an extra day here and I appreciate the effort, but it seems like you’re treading water through this post. We know it was a mediocre game and it was nice that the Clippers were able to play poorly and come out with a victory, but SP seemed to cover most of the limited info that we picked up. Still, it’s good to know about this site.
The quality or efficiency of the 3-guard lineup is always going to be a function of the opponent, right? So what is this going to tell about what will happen when the Clips go up to Portland tomorrow night, or when (gulp!) they play Lebron and DWade on the second night of a back to back? It’s also a tricky sample because it was Reggie Evans’ first game, which created a strange set of dominoes, including Cook grabbing some of Gomes’ minutes, as you point out.
I think SP was hinting at the fact that Gomes bears some resemblance to being a rotation player, while Brian Cook does not. So this was the first time that Reggie Evans was in the rotation, and a certain amount of substitution havoc ensued, in part, ironically enough, because Gomes didn’t earn extra minutes on the floor, and his minutes were given to Cook, perhaps just so he might have some.
I take two things away from what you’re covering and making me think about here. The first is the question of what the eventual rotation might or should look like, and we only got a glimpse of a new and important and almost final piece of it, in Evans. Neither Cook or Trey Thompson need to play at all, as far as I’m concerned, and the question is whether Solomon Jones moves ahead of Cook—that’s the thing that I want to see.
The second item is the 3-guard question. What’s striking about this one not the efficiency or if it’s preferable over giving Gomes limited minutes, but the permutations. Who is the better 3rd guard/“SF,” is it Foye or Williams? We can assume it would be Williams, who is bringing a ton of energy and looking for more minutes. The reasoning goes that you hate to take him out, and you want to bring Chris Paul back, so you leave Mo out there and take out Gomes/Cook instead, and give him a couple of more minutes before bringing back Caron. It was kinda dumb against the Bucks because Butler was playing well, but I guess it’s possible to see how it makes sense.
But the bigger question under the “permutations” heading is something that keeps nagging at me, as the Clips seem to have a whole lot of guards. What happens when Bledsoe comes back?
And I’ll also note, lingering too long (as I always seem to do), that I don’t get these comments about moving Bledsoe and trade talk. Maybe it’s because he’s out, and the Clips have so many solid, roughly similar guards. But Bledsoe is a great piece for the future, even if Chris Paul is a longterm Clipper. Billups and Mo Williams are luxury items, when you think about it. Mo’s established starter credentials are trade bait that will only get more tantilizing as his pricey deal moves towards expiration. It’s hard to guess what kind of extension Billups might want, and it depends on what happens with this team. Foye and his deal will go away. But Eric Bledsoe is on a rookie contract and will only get better playing with all of these experienced guys. He can grow into being a great backup for Paul, and he’ll also be playing a lot of SG, this year and beyond. I don’t see him going anywhere, but maybe I’m missing something.
citizen zhiv - January 9, 2012
Well, the post was designed primarily to foster discussion, I'll grant you that...
And judging by the lengh of your post, it did that, didn’t it? And that’s what the blog is for… discourse.
I did start out trying to look deeper into the game stats and wanted to see if the numbers on the 3-guard lineup might drift toward a conclusion. It didn’t take me anywhere really but PopcornMachine is an interesting site and it gives us a somewhat different look at the game.
Regarding the use of the 3-headed beast vs. the use of Gomes. It’s a pretty pure comparison and one to watch. Butler is going to play 30-35 minutes. Do you want to use Gomes, who’s an okay defender and (when he’s on) an okay spot up shooter. Or do you want to bring in three tiny guys, play them with your good bigs (BG, DJ, Evans) and let them try and create havoc. My theory is that it isn’t going to get you a better overall number (measured by plus/minus). It MIGHT work but only against certain, smallish teams… certainly not against a team with big wings like Portland tomorrow night.
So… we don’t expect to see Vinny roll it out tomorrow, right?
I wouldn’t bet on that either.
John Raffo - January 9, 2012
The only part I disagree with is the part about Mo
10 points on 4-7 shooting and 4 assists is not okay numbers off the bench- those are really good. The 3 TOs are bad, but +/- means almost nothing unless you use it for whole lineups, or something really egregious happens (Carlos Boozer was -41 in the Bulls recent game against the Hawks for example).
So while the bench as a whole was bad, I dont think Mo played ok, I think he played pretty well. Also, his assists numbers will never be great off the bench, because Randy Foye, the other primary scorer, hardly ever shoots off the catch, but loves to dribble around aimlessly before shooting.
NewCavsfan - January 9, 2012
We have to keep eye on all this
I’m not into the 3 guard thing either. Paul and Billups give us enough ball handling and enough shooting. Mo as well seems like too many cooks and not enough waiters. It’s more of a slam on our other options than anything else.
One other detail to watch is how much better Gomes is at the 4 than the 3. SP mentioned this in his last post, and it’s hard to argue that he’s not a better option than Cook. But if Gomes is better off in the front court, then it just goes to show that we need another 3, and of the defensive variety.
Btw, regardless of his +/-, Foye has looked good recently. I don’t want him at the 3, but unlike Gomes and Cook, I’m starting to like the guy.
SilverClip - January 9, 2012
Foye is doing well, I agree....
But he must always be kept on a very short leash.
Takebb909 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Mo, Foye, Gomes, Evans, Solomon J.
This is a line up that forms the right chemical balance to form a proper bench. All of the scoring comes from the two guards, who as bench players have jobs as keeping the lead. They can have much free range to “fire at will”, knowing their propensity to score and Reggie Evans’ to suck up anything that comes off that rim. Those three guys do their job well.
Gomes probably sees his greatest value to this current team in this formation: he does not need to be the 1st or 2nd best scorer, rebounder, passer, dribbler, blocker or anything else. He can actually utilize his one strength, his IQ, and just move the ball around and fill in the gaps. Gomes can hit the set 3, rebound a little, pass a little or a little of anything else. Doing a “lot” of ANYTHING for Gomes is foreign and not a good thing for him. But in a position were we don’t depend on him for any particular category, Gomes can prove to be most efficient. If you sub in any other bench option; Cook for Solomon (were are wrongly asking Gomes to be our second best rebounder and shot blocker because Cook is going to be camping out on offense or be an old man on defenser), Bledsoe for Foye (we again, in error, are now asking Gomesh to be our second scoring option and passer).
Reggie and Solomon playing in that line up leave Reggie in as the muscle and rebounder while Solomon can govern the airways.
Takebb909 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
bledsoe
created his own shot better than Gomes
LJ Hann - January 10, 2012
This is a terrible terrible line up
if Foye and Gomes does not have the touch that day. At least Rej could get a 20 reb night.
cliptakular - January 10, 2012
any lineup
That features Foye and Gomes prominently is in for a long night.
ClipperChuck - January 10, 2012 via mobile
we are talking about making do with what we have...
And this, my friends, is the best of that scenario. Would we rather have Cook in that I line up?
Now when Bledsoe returns, Gomes does not fit in the line-up any longer (that was my other point I forgot to make). So when it nears the time of Bledsoe’s return, Gomes should be dealt in a package deal with Foye. Where as now they help the Clips tread water, after Bledsoe comes back, there is not need (Foye) or fit (Gomes) for them. In that trade we should seek a swingman that can play SG and SF.
Takebb909 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
more likely
we will go smallball with the reserves with Williams, Bledsoe, foye, Gomes, and Evans
LJ Hann - January 10, 2012
That’s certainly small
SilverClip - January 10, 2012
Look at the chart...
There are only tiny moments, for maybe a minute at two different points in the Bucks game where there was not a starter on the floor. Takebb909’s lineup should almost never hit the floor intact.
The three guard lineup only played for a few minutes and it was only an alternative replacement for Butler, in one of his normal rest periods.
I will agree with this, that Gomes best advantage is his IQ. He does little things well but falls short when specific expectations become to grand.
John Raffo - January 10, 2012
yes small moments of time were this occurs...
Our bulk of mins should be (however dreadful this is and should remedied with a trade, because Gomes is useless while Foye is volatile in any other current possibility) our starting 5 along with Mo, Reggie and Solomon. And you see with that, we will ultimately have periods of small ball. We can possibly get away with small ball against three fourth’s of the league, where as I’d probably only like seeing it every other or third game.
Takebb909 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
solomon
really? He is a new toy, so I understand wanting to see him, but we are, IMO, better off with gomes/four taking those minutes than Jones.
LJ Hann - January 10, 2012
you like Gomes and Reggie...
…moreso than Reggie and Solomon?
It’s not “newtoyitis” for me. Its looking to have a threat of a shotblocker in there to keep teams a little honest. Solomon only needs to be a poor man’s DeAndre, lol
Takebb909 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
I think Solomon is a big body
nothing more. Gomes can hit a mid range or three point jumper and in that second unit Reggie/Solomon does nothing offensively.
LJ Hann - January 10, 2012
I expect you're right here, LJ...
It will be interesting to see if Solomon gets minutes. I doubt it will ever happen with Evans on the floor. Evans fills the paint quite nicely and the Clips have been lacking a guy like that. I see him getting most of the minutes as the back up at 4 and 5. He should be effective with shooters on the floor.
John Raffo - January 10, 2012
I agree that this all sub lineup makes the most sense
I also agree with Raffo that there will seldom be time when all 5 starters are out.
If we go small, then I agree with you that Evans and Jones are better than having Gomes at the 4. I like Gomes at the 4 if DJ and Caron are also on the floor. But if the guards are doing most of the scoring, then we ought to have a rebounding and a shot blocking big out on the floor for support. I may change my mind once we see Jones play, but from my armchair this is what makes the best sense.
I think you’re main point is that Gomes shouldn’t be put in a position where he has to shine in any area. This ought to be one of VDN’s guiding principles.
SilverClip - January 10, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Clips Nation to post a comment.