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Clippers at Portland - Game Preview

2011/2012 NBA Regular Season
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vs.
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4-2
6-2
Rose Garden
January 10, 2012 7:00 PM
Prime Ticket, KFWB 980 AM
Probable starters:
Chris Paul PG Raymond Felton
Chauncey Billups SG Wesley Matthews
Caron Butler SF Gerald Wallace
Blake Griffin PF LaMarcus Aldridge
DeAndre Jordan C Marcus Camby

Back Story:

The Big Picture:

The Clippers and Trail Blazers meet for the second time in 10 days. The Clippers won the first meeting in LA, building a 17 point lead through the three quarters and then hanging on against a furious Portland comeback down the stretch. The Blazers are undefeated at home in five games, and will be looking to avenge one of their only losses of the season. The Clippers on the other hand haven't lost ALL YEAR (OK, it's only three games), so something has to give.

The Antagonist:

The Blazers are a completely different team in the post Brandon Roy era. After being the slowest team in the league for years (Portland's pace was 30th in the league for the last three seasons and never higher than 26th in the Nate McMillan era) suddenly the Blazers are playing at a, well, blazing pace. Their 95 possessions per 48 minutes currently ranks them as the third fastest team in the league. It's a testament to McMillan's use of his personnel. Raymond Felton, Wes Matthews and Gerald Wallace have all joined the Blazers since summer 2010, and all are thriving at the faster pace. The fact that the Blazers are off to such a strong start in the season following Roy's retirement and more than two years since Greg Oden last played NBA basketball is definitely one of the more compelling stories of the early NBA season.

Star-divide

The Subplots:
  • Portlandia. I've just recently discovered this sketch comedy show on IFC. I doubt that the people in Portland are really like this, but I like to think they are. Last week, Fred and Carrie headed to SoCal (that's what they called it, SoCal) and when they got there, they screamed... "Oh, my eyes, my lily white skin! What's that thing in the sky? Where are the clouds to block out the sun?" I laughed. It was funny.
  • Speaking of Oden. Oden and the Blazers quietly renegotiated his contract after his latest health setback. Portland had extended the $8.9M qualifying offer to make the former first overall pick a restricted free agent, but the parties then agreed to a one year, $1.5M deal for this season. Why would Oden sign off on $1.5M when his QO was close to $9M? Probably because he knew he was done for the season (again) and that if he forced Portland's hand, they'd simply rescind the QO. That would have put him in the position of finding a different team to take a chance on him as an unrestricted free agent, which would have shined a spotlight on his ongoing health issues, something he and his agent undoubtedly did not want. So he remains a Blazer, gets a little more than the minimum, and continues to rehab to hopefully play in the NBA again some day.
  • Rebounding. The Clippers are currently the worst rebounding team in the NBA, and it's not particularly close. Portland on the other hand is the best defensive rebounding team in the league and an above average offensive rebounding team. Reggie Evans, with a game and a few more days of practice under his belt, will help with the rebounding tonight, but the entire team had better commit to the task or they'll get buried on the boards in this one.
  • Clippers offense. The Clippers offense is currently second in the NBA at over 109 points per 100 possessions - and that's while shooting the worst free throw percentage in the league! Kevin Arnovitz argues that the Clippers offense is very much about "showing up" - by not turning the ball over, the Clippers give themselves a chance to score most trips down the court. They also have a bunch of guys out there who are capable scorers. Something will have to give in this game though, as Portland has the fourth best defense in the league, allowing less than 98 points per 100 possessions.
  • Home/Road Records. Obviously there's a significant home court advantage in the NBA, but it seems more extreme than ever this season, particularly in the West. There are six Western Conference teams with zero road wins so far this season, and only one with a winning record on the road. Among the teams without a road win are traditional West powers like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers. Meanwhile, there are four teams that are undefeated at home. Portland is one of the unbeaten home teams, so this will be a difficult test for the Clippers.
  • Still leisurely. We keep talking about it before every game, but the Clippers continue to have the least busy schedule in the NBA - but a wide margin at this point. Through the games of Monday night, the Clippers have played just six - while every other team in the league has played at least eight. The Lakers and Thunder will be playing their 11th games tonight as the Clippers play their seventh. As has seemed more or less standard so far, the Clippers had two days off since Saturday night's win over Milwaukee to prepare for this one.
  • Start of back-to-back. That leisurely pace will being to change, as the Clippers play their first back-to-back of the season tonight in Portland and tomorrow night at home against Miami. Portland likewise has another game Wednesday night, home against Orlando.
  • Time to prove something. The Clippers season so far has been unsurprising. The team is 4-2, but only one win was against a playoff team from last season (the first Portland game). Meanwhile, the two losses came against the teams with the two best records in basketball last season. So the Clippers have won the games they were supposed to win, lost the ones they were supposed to lose. The next three games (at Portland and then home to Miami and the Lakers) will go a long way to establishing how good this team is. They've had the extra practice reps afforded by the leisurely start to the season, they've got Billups back and Reggie Evans healthy for the first time, so they should be about as strong as they're going to be. Three straight wins in these games would indicate that this is a team to be reckoned with in the west; three straight losses would indicate that the hype was premature. Something in between means something in between.
  • Who played center on Noah's Ark? According to Swami Raffo, the Blazers centers both "appeared in the Bible". I'm not sure if he's referring to the new or the old testament, but I do know that Kurt Thomas (39) is the oldest player in the NBA and Marcus Camby (turning 38 in March) is the fifth oldest. How they hold up as the season wears on will be integral to Portland's chances.
  • Rhino sighting. In addition to Camby, former Clipper Craig Smith is now a Blazer. I miss the Rhino. If you ask me if I'd rather have Brian Cook or Craig Smith at the vet's min, I think you know what my answer would be. Smith is beginning to find a place in McMillan's rotation. After barely playing in the first four games, he has averaged 13 minutes in the last four.
  • Home Sweet Home for Crash. Gerald Wallace has been beyond enigmatic for the Blazers this year. He's been unstoppable at home, averaging 21 points while shooting 65%, and completely worthless on the road, scoring less than 5 points per game and shooting 16%. He's been even more invisible in the two Portland losses, going 0 for 5 with no points in the first meeting against the Clippers, and 0 for 6 with one point against the Suns. That one point performance came a day after he'd scored 31 against the Lakers.
  • Small forward riches. Of course, even if Crash isn't clicking, the Blazers can just bring Nicolas Batum off the bench. In a league with a seeming dearth of quality small forwards (the Clippers have been looking for one for years and may finally have found him in Caron Butler), the Blazers have two of the best in the game. Batum does everything well - and he comes off Portland's bench!
  • Del Negro vs. McMillan. OK, so we can agree that McMillan is the better coach. But who came out on top when they met each other as players? Del Negro and McMillan were in the NBA together for a decade, and went head to head 24 times as pros. McMillan's teams had the better record at 15 wins versus 9 losses, but Del Negro more than doubled Nate's scoring average at 10.6 versus 5.2.
  • [Note by Steve Perrin, 01/10/12 9:00 AM PST ] DAJ on LMA. Citizen TPan brought this up in the comments, and it deserves it's own bullet. The first game changed in the second half when the Clippers switched their defensive assignments and put DeAndre Jordan on LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge's length was killing Griffin, but Jordan was able to counter it with plenty of length of his own. LMA had 13 points in the first half, but only six in the second. He had only two in the third quarter that the Clippers won 25-16. Jordan on Aldridge should be the defensive assignment from the opening tip tonight. Camby is shooting 28% on the season and can more or less be ignored.
  • From the Urban Dictionary (who knew the Jail Blazers era was so apropos?):

    blazer

    n. Someone who smokes marijuana 24/7 and is known for it, another word for Pothead

    Friend number 1-Andrew Y is the biggest Blazer I know.
    Friend number 2-Oh my god i know, i heard he goes to rehab.

  • Get the Blazers perspective at Blazer's Edge.

0 recs  |  211 comments

Comments

O.T. but

How many bank shot bingos will we hear during the season?

we had 1 already, right?

over under is 6.5… I’m taking under

"Three straight wins in these games would indicate that this is a team to be reckoned with in the west; three straight losses would indicate that the hype was premature. Something in between means something in between. "

……why’d ya havta go and say it Steve! Ya went and spake on it! Now let’s hope for the prior and not the middle. I’ll settle for the latter.

By The Way

Awesome pic that was selected

Isn't that amazing?

I love that shot.

no joke

…it really is. I love the look on Blake’s face. I sense a possible avatar change….

picture

Only some of he AP photos support the thin portrait format photo, which is the one I like to use on previews. So I’m always searching through photos of the teams in the game, looking for anything that supports the format and includes players of interest (i.e. not Baron Davis and Andre Miller). So to find one that has the right teams, the right players, and the right format, and is also a great shot, well, that’s a good day.

Framing

Ive seen it mentioned, mostly on Portland sites, several times that the win against Portland was a fluke because even though we thoroughly dominated them for 3 quarters, Portland only lost by a handful of points. I see it as the opposite, that Crawford wont be able to have 20+ point quarters as often as we can shut them down because we match up pretty well with them.
DJ is long enough to bother LA, Camby is a non factor on offense that allows blake to hide his defensive weaknesses against, and their guards aren’t very big. Its always hard to win on the road, especially in ptl, but I don’t think our last game with them was a fluke

DAJ on LMA

I meant to mention that in the preview – think I’ll add a bullet. The game changed in the third when Jordan defended Aldridge. It changed again in the fourth when Crawford went off, but in terms of sustainable attack, if Jordan can limit Aldridge all game, Portland is vulnerable.

accuscore has portland as 76% favorites....

yikes

Not surprising Portland is an amazing home team

they are like a dome team in the NFL, they play amazingly at home but somehow when they leave the comforts of home they play a lot worse.

why does the sbnation standings box

have The clips behind the Lakers, despite being the same amount of games back, and clippers having a better win %?

its probably not some conspiracy

Its probably because whoever wrote the script didn’t understand how the standings were calculated and based it on wins instead.

I am more than sure we can beat Portland

But our bench has outplay their one-two punch bench (Batum and Crawford). We cannot afford for any of these guys to get hot.

exactly

we need mo to go nose to nose with Crawford, and for our starting lineup to play well enough to offset Batum wreaking bench havoc.

Batum and Crawford - not a bad bench
If their bench is stronger because of a 1-2 punch

Our starters are stronger simply because Paul/Billups >>>> Felton/Matthews. And DJ/Blake/Butler vs LMA/Camby/Wallace isn’t that lopsided one way or the other.

One important thing

If we beat Portland than we do what the Lakers couldn’t do since Portland killed them at home. That would be good momentum going into the Laker game on Saturday.

Portland is going to be fired up

since we handled them pretty well last game. I think this is the biggest test yet that we have faced, specially on the road. Looking to see more of Evans tonite.

more of his balls?

erm, I mean, ball grabbing…
like rebounding… yeah…

Hopefully our weaknesses rebounding and free throw shooting don’t kill us.

This is the way I see the machups.

CP3 vs Felton

Portland has a habit of drafting point guards every year: Jack, Bayless, Mills, Johnson and Smith. so it is pretty sad they are stuck with this guy Felton. I didn’t like him in Indiana. He actually fit in New York, but I still didn’t like him. I didn’t like him in Denver. And he is awful in Portland. He runs around like a chicken with his head cut off. Sure he’s fast. Chickens with their heads cut off are fast if you’ve ever tried to catch one (I actually did once as a kid). But they don’t really go anywhere and either does Felton. How many times does is he start one on three or one on four breaks that lead to nothing? He’s a turnover machine too.

Advantage: Clippers by a mile with the best pg in the league

Billups vs Matthews

Billups didn’t actually play in the drubbing we gave them a few days ago. They are going to find out how much he means to us out there. Billlups will always be the that the other team’s fans point to and say, look, we crush your little point guard there with our 6’8" SG. Well, I will take Billups over their crappy SG any day. Billups creates so many problems with his shooting and “veteran savvy” (I think he actually has that term copyrighted). He’s tough and smart and always plays the opposing SG toe toe.

Matthews I like a lot actually. He is one tough hombre. But its too bad he started that damn eye google fad. And behind him is Crawford, probably the best sixth man in the league. We have Foye, who has had some good games, but is uneven so far.

Advantage: Blazers

Gerald Wallace vs Caron Butler

Keep hearing from Portland fans that Wallace should be an all-star, but in the only two games I’ve seen from him, he’s scored zero points (our game) and one point (suns game). That doesn’t seem like all-star material to me.

Caron is secretly becoming a solid third option on this team. I don’t think there’s anyone on the team (besides CP3) who I trust more with a long outside shot. He is the anti-cookie. Also, in the last game he completely locked down Wallace, so at this point Wallace has something to prove to me.

Advantage: Clippers

Blake Griffin vs Marcus Aldridge

I’ve watched Aldridge for several years. I’ve watched him a lot. I can tell you that despite what Portland fans may argue, Aldridge is no Blake Griffin. Aldridge is one of these borderline all-star players who is just not quite good enough to actually be an all-star. He’s the best player on the Blazers and has a great outside shot. But he’s lacking the spark that makes a truly great player like Blake. Blake kills him with his intensity and drive and athleticism. To me there’s no contest in this battle (and it will be a battle). To use the game Skyrim which I’ve been addicted to for weeks as a reference. Alridge is a Nord with a battle axe and Griffin is a high flying dragon. Nine times out of ten, the dragon goes home with a tasty meal.

Advantage: Clippers

DeAndre Jordan vs. Marcus Camby

This is the mentor vs the master, Jedi vs Jedi. I still think Jordan needs works. He’s got to figure out the right balance to blocking shots and rebounding. He should never ever get less that eight rebounds a game. Our rebounding problems can be directly correlated to his failures on the boards. He has to, has to, has to pick it up and be not just our defensive anchor but an absolute fiend on the boards. Literally, this season depends on him figuring it out.

Love Camby. Clippers never should have got rid of him. Should have signed him to a fair multiyear contract and we would have the backup we are so worried about today. Blazers got such a deal In resigning him.

Advantage: Draw!

Bench vs Bench

I am finally starting to like our bench better with Evans, the defensive gargoyle. Still, I think it’s weaker than the Blazers who probably have one of if not the best bench in the league.

Advantage: Blazers

So in the end, the matchups are 3-2-1 in favor of the Clippers. They are in for a battle tonight. The Rose Garden is a hellish place to play. Just ask the Lakers who recently got their ass kicked there a few days ago.

Final Prediction

Winner: Clippers (by 2-3 points)

Hold your breath. This one is going down to the wire.

Two things...

1) Camby can’t be considered a bargain at almost $12 million this year. He only averaged 25 minutes last year. The Clips had Kaman and Jordan and there was simply no way.
2) Evans is a gargoyle. Nice work on that.

Hoopshype says 9 mill.

I was thinking it was 7-8 mill, maybe that was the beginning of the contract.

b-ref has 11.7 for last year, shamsports has $12,866,332 for this year.

Historically shamsports seems to have the best numbers… but I’m not sure they’re updating anymore. Hoopsworld has the same 12.9 number that ss has.

if I remember correctly

Camby’s extension was largely incentive based, so you’re both probably correct. Thought it was like 2year 18mil + incentives.

I don't know

I would say Wallace over Butler

BJ and LA – largely a wash at this point (LA better outside shooter)

DJ over Camby (largely due to D on LA)

Otherwise agree. This is going to be a ballbuster.

Freudian slip haha...

Who was that matching up against LA again?

I think he meant "BJ in LA"

lol “largely a wash at this point (LA better outside shooter)”

BJ in LA much better than BJ in Portland

Been to both places.

"You guys are horrible - I was talking about her cat"

“That cat was the best F*#@ I ever had”

Nice work but I do not remember Felton every playing in Indiana

I also would not bet againt the Wallace matchup at home. Also,the coach gets frustrated with the inconsistent play of Batum that sometimes affects his playing time.

Oops, for some reason I always confuse charlotte with indiana, hahaha.

Blazer Fan Here

What a homerific slanted preview by you Sfernald. Was an interesting read none the less.

1-Felton never played for Indiana. He started out in Charlotte. Also you say Felton is horrible in Portland? He is one of the biggest reasons Portland is #3 in the league in pace. He has helped transition Portlan from the our old slow plodding ways into this breakneck pace that now has us with the 2nd best record in the Western Conferance. So in my opinion you are way off on your view of Ray Felton and his impact for the Blazers.

2-Matthews no longer does the 3 Googles. That was last year. This year he holsters the three fingers he holds up after a made three and slides them into his imaginary holster on his hip. Its known as the Three Shooter. :P

3-Way to pick out Wallace’s two worst games of the year and not even awknowledge his entire body of work this year. If we offered you Wallace straight up for Caron Butler you’d do that deal in a second.

4-I agree with some points in your Aldridge vs Griffin matchup preview. However if you are saying Griffin has such a spark how come he cant defend Aldridge to save his life and they have to switch Jordan on to Aldridge to guard him? I wouldnt say the Griffin vs Aldridge matchup is a clear advantage to the Clippers. At least not with Portland playing at home and Griffin unable to adquately defend Aldridge one on one.

5-I agree this is close to a draw. However I’d give the Edge to Camby just for the fact that he is a rebounding machine in 25 mins or less and knows how to pass. Especially the back door lobs to Aldridge. Jordan is good for some weakside blocked shots but is an extremly poor rebounder for his size.

Anyways love the Blog I enjoy the Clips fan base on here and hope for a great game!

Go Blazers!

No problem. It will be a great game. I will post this over on blazers edge (after some proof editing of course) because I’m interested to see what other blazers fans think as well.

on Wallace

They haven’t had very many games this year and he’s had two horrible games. Great players don’t have horrible games. I would be concerned if I were a blazer fan. Having said that, I doubt he has another goosegg at home.

Not sure I understand the LA v. Griffin arg. Griffin can’t guard LA, LA can’t guard Griffin. I think anyone would take Griffin over LA and we have the luxury of putting DJ on LA which shuts him down without giving up much on the defensive end.

I also think that DJ is better than Camby at this point over all because of his on ball D on the Blazers’ best player.

Wallace is obv. better than Butler.

Honestly, I’d call Aldridge better at this point that Griffin.

Griffin has the potential to be better but until he gets that face-up jumper right I’ll take Aldridge’s post game…

I understand your point

But I’d take Griffin even without a post game. He scores 25ppg without one and really LA can’t hope to stop him.

I think he could if the refs would let him be physical….but you know how the superstar calls go.

I think most people would think Wallace is better than Butler and I’m one of them. I would agree that Jordan is better than Camby, but he does tend to get into foul trouble and I wouldn’t say he is that great of a defender…but I would still pick him over Camby because of his athletic ability. At this point I think that LA is a better all around player than Griffin, offensively and definitely defensively. But, obviously, Griffin is a better rebounder than LA. I would call it a draw on Wes and Chauncey and the Clips most definitely have the better PG. But your bench is kind of stinky compared to Portland’s. Too bad you couldn’t hold onto Kaman. That would have been a nice player to have as a sixth man.

bench

Few teams in the league have Jamal Crawford and Nic Batum quality players on the bench. Mo Williams has been great for the Clippers, but there’s no one up front. Well, now there’s Reggie Evans, which is a huge upgrade.

forgot about reggie evans....

he just gobbles up rebounds..

among other things...
here's the deal

We have the two best players on both teams.

You have a better bench.

You are playing at home and are tough there.

Really, Wes even with Billups?

Wes is good, no doubt, but Billups is still playing at a very high level. Just check out b-ref.com’s comparisons from last year. Or you can look at this year. Billups is the weird guy whose productions hasn’t really dropped off with age. I think it’s his style of play or something.

But anyway, if you meant from a now + future standpoint, then yeah I’d agree Matthews has the brighter future (in that he’s nowhere near 40 years old haha). I agree LA is a lot more skilled now than Griffin, and as Steve’s said, Griffin still has a lot to learn. The high ceiling’s there, though, so we’re happy for that. The thing about LA, though, is that he seems to have increased his ceiling. By throwing in a lot more physicality to his game, I think he’s also going to improve as he learns to use that physicality. Kind of like how Dirk took his game to another level after the 2006 thrashing by Miami. Dirk added a post game, and bam, he’s a yearly MVP candidate. And you’re spot on about our bench. Reggie Evans is nice, and Mo Williams is obviously an all-star, but it REALLY drops off after that. You guys have a super scorer in Crawford, and super solid backup SF in Batum, and a very efficient player in Craig Smith. Kurt Thomas is smart and knows his limitations. We have idiots named Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, and Brian Cook somehow getting playing time. When your (2nd round) rookie makes your vets look bad, you have a problem.

I’d agree with you on Felton, he does a great job of pushing the ball and making the Blazers a more exciting, uptempo team.

For the Aldridge v. Griffin matchup, the spark that Sfernald is talking about is purely on the offensive end. Aldridge is a beat. I respect his game, and he made Griffin look really bad defensively when Blake was guarding LA. We all knows Blake’s shortcomings on the defensive end, but that can be hidden by sticking him on Camby with DJ guarding LA. Blake’s relentless attack on offense is what gives him the edge over Aldridge. That’s what Sfernald was saying.

LA along with his polar opposite Chuck Hayes

have consistently been the two players who affect Blake’s offense for different reasons. Height for one and incredible strength with the other. The Lakers also do to some extent.

What I love.

And it is truly great that both the Clippers and the Blazers fan bases can talk and have meaningful games. Both the Clippers and the Blazers are finally relevant in regards to contending in the West.

good point - it's all good
While I consider the Blazers a tough opponent

I love the passion of the fans as it is the only game in town unless you follow the Oregon Ducks in Eugene. I like Portland and used to travel there once per month on business. Great place.

y'all do LA proud

As a Blazer fan, you guys just give me more incentive to hate the Lakers.

I hope this year is the start for you guys with many more good years ahead.

Exactly...

I find it very difficult to talk sports with most Laker fans. Their only argument- (1) count the championships, (2) you’re a hater. Both of which are a moot points when you’re talking about what’s happening now in the NBA.

The Rose Garden is an arena I definitely want to check out. Maybe this year…

I'm just happy the Blazers bounced back so well from the Roy and Oden disasters

And LMA “waking up” last year was one of the most beautiful things I’ve ever seen. It’s like he suddenly realized, Wait, if I just push through this defender (and I’m way bigger than him), then I can just dunk it really hard! My favorite PF behind Blake, by far.

As a Blazers fan...

This is where I miss the potential Greg Oden “had”

You’re right teams can stick there weaker post defenders on Camby and not be hurt at all. Had Oden ever come around he could at least be a mini beast deep in the paint. Even when Oden played and was extremly raw teams had to double team him if he got the ball in the post because of his strength at the rim and if they did that it obviously leaves Lamarcus and our three point shooters open. Curse the health gods for Odens frail body and crummy knees.

My only gripe with Griffin and its minor sense its hard to gripe about a guy that puts up 25 and 11 is his poor FT shooting and for a guy with his leaping ability he cant block shots.

Blocked two last game, hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

Defensively, his problems seems to be that when his man is backing him down the post, he just moves back with him. He needs to use him body to dig in there and not give the guy position more.

I think he’ll come around and be a good defensive player. Really hoping it happens this year.

He's 6 games into his second season

All the hype about Griffin tends to cloud the fact that he is still learning. He has a LOT of things to improve upon. His free throw shooting will improve, as will his post defense. And he’ll get much better on offense as well, as almost all of his points come off pure athleticism and an unnaturally good handle for a PF. But as his footwork, post moves and jump shot improve, he’ll be unguardable.

Blake has some glaring weaknesses in his game which he will improve. That’s what is so scary about him. He’s already a difference-maker, and he has a lot of headroom.

this

When Laker fans tell me that Blake isn’t a top 5 player and blah blah blah I say … He is in his second year! The fact that they consider him in that company speaks for how great he is.

As they keep waiting for Bynum to become a superstar after 6 years.
he is the best center in the NBA

he had 8 and 5 last night!

Hate to say it

but the way Bynums is playing, he can make an argument for being #1. Can’t say that he IS #1 over Howard, but an argument without looking like a homer can be made.

Eh, court awareness is the difference here

There’s still a huge gap between him and Howard. Maybe his numbers look pretty, but when Howard is given the ball in the post, the world revolves around him. He controls the game (like how LeBron or CP3 or Wade control the entire game when they have the ball). When he starts to dribble into the paint, he’s completely aware of where every single player on the floor is. He kicks out bullet passes to shooters, and when they miss, he looks pissed because he did everything he could possibly do. Bynum is a horrible passer, and he’s only aware of himself when he has the ball in his hands. He has better post moves, I think, than Dwight, but that’s about it. Dwight is a much better defender too, though Bynum’s no slouch either.

Laker fans will keep saying that...

…unless Griffin becomes a Laker. Then they will forget they ever said all that stuff. It’s sad, really.

Crash over Tuff Juice

I love Wallace, though he has had some real stinkers this season. At any rate, I’d take Crash over Tuff Juice, and the rest I can’t argue with. It’s an interesting comparison between Wallace and Butler – Wallace has had the highs and lows (a 31 point game, a scoreless game) while Butler has been between 11 and 20 every game.

Wallace is that kind of player

He can win games but also lose games. Portland is a better team with him but it will be interesting to see what happens this off-season. Crash can become a UFA (has a player option) and Battum will be RFA.

DJ a poor rebounder?

You’re guilty of cherry-picking some bad games too, then. He’s always averaged double digit rebounds (per 36 minutes) for his career. These 6 games have been a huge outlier by far, most likely because he’s experimenting with trying to block more shots. When he settles down, his numbers will fall back to historic norms.

Re: Wallace & Blake

Wallace was a fantastic acquisition by Portland (one of the best grabs of the past few years), and I agree he’s better than Caron. I probably wouldn’t make that trade right now, if only because Caron seems to be a better fit with Griffin as a shooter. But if I were building a team, I’d choose Wallace over Caron 90% of the time.

Blake’s spark has never been a defensive one. It’s been a rebounding and offensive one. LMA actually plays really good D on Blake, and the Jordan switch is just because LMA is so much longer. Griffin isn’t a long defender in any way, and so he’s better suited on a guy like Camby. I agree it’s not a clear advantage to the Clips, but rather close to even. Blake’s not as good at home, and especially not that great when he’s being guarded by LMA.

Wes Matthews Eye Google Thing

It reminds me of the fist-to-the-forehead thing that Darius Miles and Q-Rich used to do, but if it they were Muppets.

Definitely old testament...

Just look at them.
The greatest thing would be if they had Oden out there too with Camby and Thomas. He’s not that old but he looks like he’s seventy. They would be like three ancient (and giant) pharoahs… or something.

It's true

Oden looks older than either Camby or Thomas.

Miniature Nephilum.

I followed Oden in high school

and I swear he looked exactly the same.

you followed

a high schooler?2

Yes. But I was embarrassed when I asked him out and he said he was only 16.
in your defense

he looked 60

You would have made a nice couple
It was all about money and fame
Seriously though...

I would let him Greg my Oden all night long.

I kind of miss the good ol'Clips

We were sure they were going to lose this game and the heat game as well, now that we’re a contender, I feel so stressed. I’m still not used to root for a winning team, every single game I get crazy nervous lol.

It's an interesting feelings
yep

Hopefully I get used to it. And they play some exciting basketball along the way. Sadly as a clips fan, I got used to a “winning isn’t everything” mentality (or more likely, that’s why I’m a clips fan in the first place)

Agreed

feels like every game is a must win just to try and prove ourselves. It’s not a bad thing, just that we used to complain about ripping our hairs out after every loss, think about ripping your hairs out before every game.

Brian Cook will eventually heat up

He’s had several really bad shooting games. It’s only a matter of time before he makes some shots. Even if he shoots at an “average” level, he will be far more valuable than he is right now. Keep in mind, Cook was for a brief period a “sixth man” important scoring option for the Clips last yr. So eventually he should get back to career average and should actually be an okay bench guy.

A funny thing....

Cook plays like an old man, yet he is the same age as the gargoyle Reggie Evans. Go figure.

You need a micrometer to measure how close Cook's 3 pt shots come to hitting the rim

when they go in. I do not every remember a shooter ever with less arc on a 3 point shot.

it does look like a shaq free throw

From 9 feet further out

You have to wonder how good of a shooter he could be if he increased his arc

He makes his target so small, it’s no wonder he misses so much. Really, I’m shocked that he ever made a decent percentage at all.

Not trying to be a negative Nancy here

But I’m not feeling too good about this one… Portland at home is an unbelievable team and the Clippers are so hit or miss right now and they can’t afford that tonight.

Yah - we'll see how much the Clips want this b/c

it will be very difficult to take one in the Rose Garden. Steve is right, particularly about this game – this is a good measuring stick. if they get blown out here, they are not yet ready for prime itme. They need to at least have a real shot to win in the 4th.

Hit or miss

Just gotta hope they hit tonight. That’s the thing – if they’re on, I think they can win anywhere.

yeah, well I'm feeling nervous about Chris Paul

He always comes out in Beast mode up here in Portland.

Can someone explain something to me?

Why is Greg Oden still drawing a salary when he has not played full seasons in 2, 3 years?

potential?
True. Potential is there but will it ever become a reality or come to fruition on the court?
that would be why he is only making 1.5 and not the 9 that he would be
Good point, my friend.
which is still an obscene amount of money

to play basketball next year

guaranteed rookie deals

He’s too good of a prospect to let walk away. He’s been very good when he’s played. Pretty unfortunate for him he’s not necessarily doing anything wrong just his knees have failed him.

the fact that DJ seems injury resistant

is why I don’t think is that overpaid. I think I once read an article where they did some statistical analysis and found a link between the games missed early in a big’s career and the number of games missed over a career. It probably good DNA and a bit of luck when you put that kind of weight on your knees.

Dude SHHH Jasen Powell might hear you

and get the urge to sweep the leg.

Am I the only one here...

to say that if Greg Oden was healthy, I might take him over DJ?

might

but DJ is normally fairly healthy, and younger than Oden

not really

but that’s neither here nor there. Oden would probably be borderline superstar if he could stay healthy whilst DJ probably won’t come anywhere near that. What’s more valuable: a banged up Porsche or a accident free Sedan?

not even a banged up porsche

because he gets in fender benders constantly and was poorly built, if you will

no

Greg Oden would be a much better player than DJ if healthy. But durability is a rare attribute forand centers and one of DJs greatest strengths.

Exactly!

Oden is very Bynum-ish productively, but he’s also somehow more injury prone than Bynum. I like DJ over an injury prone center any day of the week.

As John R has mentioned more than a few times

Health is one of the biggest determining factors of success. And it’s the biggest factor that doesn’t show up in any advanced stats, even more so than defensive intangibles.

Well..

This is the first non-guaranteed deal, so those other years he was drawing a salary without playing there was no alternative. So the fact that he’s making $1.5M instead of $9M is an indication of how little confidence anyone has that he’ll actually ever have an impact on the NBA. Portland has invested 4 years and $22M in him so far. Another year of a roster spot and another $1.5M is a small enough price to pay, on the hopes that maybe some day he can contribute.

that

And not sure who he’d be able to rehab as a free agent

What was the word on his latest setback?

$1.5M ain’t hay. The Blazers must feel that the odds of his return aren’t lousy.

Well...

The minimum for a 5 year player is like $900K, so they didn’t give him much of a premium over that. It ain’t hay to you and me, but actually, yes, it is hay. Oden will no doubt miss this season – Portland paid $1.5M to have his Bird right’s next summer. It’s not cheap, but Paul Allen has some pretty deep pockets.

He’s 2 weeks shy of his 24th birthday, and is a complete beast when he can actually play. Bill Walton, Grant Hill, Nene, Marcus Camby, Shaun Livingston…. the NBA is littered with guys who eventually returned from one or more serious injuries that had people thinking their careers were over. The Blazers have a hell of a lot more info about his condition than I do – but by the same token, if the prognosis were really “Just this one last rehab and then everything will be fine” then Oden and his agent would have gone the FA route and gotten paid more than $1.5M this year.

amare

on that list

the list of people that didn't get back

will also be quite large. And almost all of the players you named had to change their game. He might come back but chances are that it will be in a more modest role.

I assume he'll be a different player

Though let’s be clear, Oden’s game was never predicated on quickness and explosiveness. The question is, can a physically diminished Oden wtih knees that limit his mobility still be a productive center in the NBA, and my answer is “Gana Diop started for Charlotte last night.”

Oden's Setback

By all accounts Oden was suppose to be ready to play in January. This was prior to NBA training camps starting up in December. Here is the link to the story and a few excerpts from Dec 9 2011.

http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/index.ssf/2011/12/trail_blazers_greg_oden_suffer.html

One day after Greg Oden and his agent proclaimed progress in the oft-injured center’s latest knee rehabilitation, the Trail Blazers announced Oden had actually suffered a setback, leading to a restructuring of his one-year contract.

The Blazers said the new contract was negotiated because they are “less confident” Oden will be able to play this season. Oden, who had microfracture surgery on his left knee in November of 2010, hasn’t played in a game in more than two years.

Oden on Thursday was examined by noted knee specialist Dr. Richard Steadman in Vail, Colo., after which he and one of his agents, Mike Conley Sr., declared progress, saying he was cleared to expand his rehabilitation to include basketball activities such as shooting, cutting and pivoting. The Blazers declined to comment on Thursday.

But upon further examination, it was determined that Oden has an issue with a non-weight bearing ligament. Oden has no symptoms and doesn’t feel restricted, but the doctors are concerned with the fragility of the ligament.

I wonder what Oden's original problem was... or is...

Meniscus, ligament? MFS is designed to encourage cartilage growth, but it won’t regrow cartilage in the meniscus area (the area at the bottom of the knee).
Of course talking about damaged knees to a Blazers fan is like talking to an Angel about heaven. He’s been there and you’ve only read about it.
My sympathies and I’m knocking on wood.

worth a gamble

I believe Oden also accepted it to make up for the past few years. He surely could have made more elsewhere. If he get healthy he still can make a ton of money, so less pay for one year isn’t too bad.

also, being on the blazers gives Oden acces to NBA medical care.
Good point...

Though I wonder if the NBAPA has a deal similar to the NFLPA, where if you have an NFL contract and step, even just once on any NFL field, you have health insurance… forever.
Though a running contract might give him better access to that teams facilities and trainers, which probably WOULDN’T happen if he wasn’t undre contract.
This is, of course, the nightmare that our own Eric Bledsoe faced. He had no NBA contract when he was injured. (Injured how? Injured where? Who EXACTLY did the surgery? When, what was damaged exactly? Was it a tear, or did they remove it? What’s his status? Why no answers? Why no questions?
Sorry, you got me going.

without andre miller

I do really like this blazers team, and thought felton was a great fit for then. Not only as a better shooter than miller, but a history with Crash, and probably a better team guy (just a dig at Andre). Then scooping up Crawford for what feels like a steal of a contract. All without a GM or what?

I just hope no one else on the team picked up Andre’s patented spear attack defense during his time there, albeit as effective as it was.

Oh I forgot about the history with Crash
This is a totally different team on the road.....

..than at home. I don’t think I’ve ever seen worse shooting by a team than Portland’s last visit to Staples. But they just destroyed the Lakers in the second half of their game up at the Rose garden, especially Wallace. The Clips are going to have a hard time if the Blazers play like they’ve been playing at home. I can see them losing tonight and then beating Miami tomorrow and the Lakers after that.

Kind of like us last year...

or even last years last year..or last years last years last years…

I still remember when we were a playoff team at home, but the Washington Wizards on the road.

Washington Wizards/Generals are really looking bad this year

even worse then last year. Remember all those journalists tipping Wall for rookie of the year last year. Boy, were they wrong.

Yeah, Wall was so hyped up I almost thought he might’ve won ROY (before the season started.) I still think Wall will develop pretty nicely though. Just need to give the young pg some time.

Food for thought:

If you guys look over at the Blazers perspective, they are hyping this up to become a rivalry in growing. They see it as two teams that are potential WCF and a team that is possibly evenly matched with their Blazers. Wonder if this really could develop into a new rivalry. I don’t see it happening, but it could.

Something else that makes me interested is how well Rhino used to be play against us. Rhino, as well as other guys like Humpries used to torch the living snot out of us. If Nate decides to use Rhino more in this game knowing Rhino’s history, it might influence this game. Not to mention, Rhino might have it in on us as we are a former team, so that’s gasoline on fire.

Well what upside to the Blazers have?

LA has been huge for them, but I can’t see him getting even better. Wallace has a player-option next year (9.5M). But he’ll probably will look for one final big contract. Camby comes off the books, but then they need to replace him. Battum becomes a RFA and will be in demand.

It will be an interesting off-season for them.

They've been doing most of this without team chemistry though

Once Felton and Crash really settle into their roles, that’s a very good team. They’re just short up on the front line.

Upside in Portland

Granted Portland isnt a huge Free Agent destinaton but the Blazers might have a TON of cap space coming up this summer. If Portland can sell some free agents on the great culture, city and amazing fan base then maybe some top quality Free Agents will come.

Also one reason I feel Portland will over acheive this year is because so many players are on 1 year deals or deals that expire at the end of the season. Players in contract years tend to ball there butts off to aquire that next big deal. Here are players in the last year of their contracts with Portland.

Brandon Roy (retired) – $14,940,153 off the books.
Gerald Wallace – $11,437,500 (player option)
Marcus Camby – $9,256,500
Ray Felton – $7,500,000
Jamal Crawford – $5,000,000 (player option)
Nic Batum – $3,166,230 (restricted free agent)
Greg Oden – $1,500,000
Kurt Thomas – $1,352,181
Craig Smith – $992,680

Thats $55,145,244 that could come off the books. $55 Million wow. Granted some of those guys will be retained and signed to new contracts such as Felton, Batum, Crawford.

But those are all the guys on 1 year deals or money that can come off the books.

while contract year is usually good

It can create a negative atmosphere where guys are sacrificing team play in order to pad their stats. The Clips saw thishand first hand back in 2003-2004.

I can see Camby going to a Miami/Lakers next year. I wish he’d come back to the Clippers but Im not sure if hes upset with the Clippers or not.

Or more recently

After we traded Camby to Portland, we had that horrible stretch where Outlaw and Blake were trying to play for their next contracts. That sucked.

Clippers-Blazers rivalry

There’s always been a kinship between Clippers and Blazers fans, partly because of the common enemy the Lakers. it would be a friendly rivalry.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend
Then we're friends with 27 other teams too ;)
i was having an interesting talk with someone the other day

about the best PFs in basketball

dirk was number one, easily.. but after that?

well, pau is still probably second. but i really felt like lma was third. and you all know im a clipper diehard, but at this point, lma still feels easily better. he lacks blake’s explosion and he doesn’t have blake’s ceiling just yet, but blake’s ceiling is just that: he hasn’t reached it yet. so as of right now, between lma’s quality midrange shot and his better defense, id pick lma over blake. (and klove for that matter since he plays no defense, duncan and garnett are aging so they’ve lost their usual 1 and 2) lma continues to be underrated with these hype kids coming up, i still think he deserved to be an all-star last year over blake.

this might seem like a portland opinion but this is how i feel about that guy objectively, he’s a fantastic player.

Not a big fan of Love

What I hate about All Star voting is I feel its all weighted towards statistics. I think Griffin deserved to make it last year but felt Aldridge should have made it over Love. When your team is in the dump and you dont actually make your team better and produce wins then I dont think you should make the All Star team. The T’Wolves were crap last year even with Love putting up huge stats. LaMarcus put up very solid stats and carried Portland on his back into the Playoffs. Love got selected due to stats while LaMarcus was left off. I felt that was the injustice of the whole thing.

Love doesnt make anyone on his team better. He really doesnt help them win. He just gobbles up all the rebounds and missed shots of his team mates and basically is a stat monger. If you were building a team you wouldnt pick Love as the foundation of your team. I see LaMarcus as more of a foundation piece then Love.

I feel Aldridge also gets lost in Portland

with little national exposure. I also think he suffers similar to Eric Gordon as he seems kind of humble, quiet and not a self promoter.

Some of those advanced metrics (e.g. Win Shares) show that while Love was really great

The rest of his team was so garbage (Luke Ridnour last year was the only one not hurting the team, other than Love, I think) that they created the terrible record. I think that great players find ways to win despite having terrible teammates, by demanding the ball and knowing that the more they touch the ball (and the less the Beasleys and Milicics of the world touch the ball), the better their team does.

Last year was an exception

The selection of Love and Griffin to last year’s ASG was definitely the exception and not the rule. Players from teams with losing records almost NEVER get chosen, regardless of stats (as was the case with Z-Bo’s last couple years in Portland). In fact, Love was an injury replacement, so it wasn’t the coaches who picked him. IIRC, Griffin is the only all star reserve from a team with a losing record in something like a decade. That’s a stat I just made up, but it FEELS correct. Kaman (2010) and Love (2011) were injury replacements.

Devin Harris?

I think Paul Pierce too

gobling up rebounds doesn't help your team??
Depends on what you value

Blake rebounds alot more, isn’t as soft, scores on par, is younger (only 6 games into his second year), gets more assists, etc. He’s worse in FTs and perhaps the midrange shot.

To me they are equal now but I’d choose Blake long term. Far more upside.

I had a dream.

Literally, I had a dream about this. It’s a tad fuzzy, but I remember the Clippers losing in the end game. They had the ball and were very sloppy with it, unable to get a good looking shot. They were able to have one or two attempts (a lucky bounce off the rebound) but they didn’t put it away. Why I am posting this? I just want to see if I am accurate at all.

We got this one
You're 4-2 to date - 66%
I hate to say it

But I have to pick a loss.

I’m picking LAC to go 2-1 this week. Win tonight and against LAL, lose against MIA.

What if D-Wade is still out?

With plantar facijsdjasdkasditis?

Lebron is playing so out of his mind good and the trip from Portland to LA is tough, even if it’s LAC home game. Don’t like that matchup at all.

Of course, they don't have a big to contest BG
At least the Heat are also playing tonite.
Right

In these 3 games, we’re either equally rested (Portland/Miami) or more rested (Lakers) than the other team.

Don't worry, we have Ryan Gomes.
lebrons just playing like lebron

He’s just that good

plantar facijsdjasdkasditis

That plantar facijsdjasdkasditis is a real bitch. If I am not mistaken, it was plantar facijsdjasdkasditis that ended Nikolosz Tskitisvalkdas;fkjad;skfj’s NBA career.

Uh, SP

Nikolosz’s last name only has one semicolon. Otherwise, those kfj’s are no longer silent.

Did we not beat the Heatles last year at home?
Tonight's game is tough as you in particular know - Portland on the road
for some reason

I feel this game will be very intense and possible a playoff preview..

love the urban dictionary

Blazer lol

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